ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2019
Influenza surveillance: determining the epidemic threshold for influenza by using the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), Montenegro, 2010/11 to 2017/18 influenza seasons.
Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Enhancing respiratory virus surveillance among hospitalised children: a machine learning-based predictive model.BMJ paediatrics open · 2026Article
- Disruption of winter influenza activity in Wuxi, China during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2013-2025): a counterfactual time-series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Global region-specific influenza early warning by establishing an epidemic intensity threshold system: a modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- H1N1pdm09 returns: a comparative study in Anhui, China.Microbiology spectrum · 2025Article
- How to assess the severity of bronchiolitis epidemics? Application of the Moving Epidemic Method in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France from 2017 to 2023.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Application of the moving epidemic method for influenza surveillance in Kunming.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Comparison of Three Influenza Surveillance Data Sources for Timely Detection of Epidemic Onset - Chengdu City, Sichuan Province and Beijing Municipality, China, 2017-2023.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- Future worldwide coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic predictions by Gaidai multivariate risk evaluation method.Analytical science advances · 2024Article
- Enhancing infectious diseases early warning: A deep learning approach for influenza surveillance in China.Preventive medicine reports · 2024Article
- Identify future epidemic threshold and intensity for influenza-like illness in Iraq by using the moving epidemic method.IJID regions · 2024Article
- Setting clinically relevant thresholds for the notification of canine disease outbreaks to veterinary practitioners: an exploratory qualitative interview study.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- Geo-epidemiology of malaria incidence in the Vhembe District to guide targeted elimination strategies, South-Africa, 2015-2018: a local resurgence.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Real-Time Monitoring of Infectious Disease Outbreaks with a Combination of Google Trends Search Results and the Moving Epidemic Method: A Respiratory Syncytial Virus Case Study.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008-2019.Emerging infectious diseases · 2020Article
- The experience of point-of-care testing for influenza in Scotland in 2017/18 and 2018/19 - no gain without pain.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2020Article
- Applying the moving epidemic method to determine influenza epidemic and intensity thresholds using influenza-like illness surveillance data 2009-2018 in Tunisia.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2020Article
- Establishing seasonal and alert influenza thresholds in Morocco.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Application of Functional Data Analysis to Identify Patterns of Malaria Incidence, to Guide Targeted Control Strategies.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundIn 2009, an improved influenza surveillance system was implemented and weekly reporting to the World Health Organization on influenza-like illness (ILI) began. The goals of the surveillance system are to monitor and analyse the intensity of influenza activity, to provide timely information about circulating strains and to help in establishing preventive and control measures. In addition, the system is useful for comparative analysis of influenza data from Montenegro with other countries.
aimWe aimed to evaluate the performance and usefulness of the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), for use in the influenza surveillance system in Montenegro.
methodsHistorical ILI data from 2010/11 to 2017/18 influenza seasons were modelled with MEM. Epidemic threshold for Montenegro 2017/18 season was calculated using incidence rates from 2010/11-2016/17 influenza seasons.
resultsPre-epidemic ILI threshold per 100,000 population was 19.23, while the post-epidemic threshold was 17.55. Using MEM, we identified an epidemic of 10 weeks' duration. The sensitivity of the MEM epidemic threshold in Montenegro was 89% and the warning signal specificity was 99%.
conclusionsOur study marks the first attempt to determine the pre/post-epidemic threshold values for the epidemic period in Montenegro. The findings will allow a more detailed examination of the influenza-related epidemiological situation, timely detection of epidemic and contribute to the development of more efficient measures for disease prevention and control aimed at reducing the influenza-associated morbidity and mortality.
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