An investigation of the combined effect of an annual mass gathering event and seasonal infectiousness on disease outbreak.

Fei Xu, C Connell McCluskey

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Mathematical biosciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

1citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

Modeling the Influence of Nonclinic Visits on the Transmission of Respiratory Diseases.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2020
Article

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Fei XuDepartment of Mathematics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: fxu@wlu.ca.

C Connell McCluskeyDepartment of Mathematics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the effects of recurring mass gathering event on the spread of an epidemic. Mass gatherings take place when a large number of people from different locations visit a particular region during a short time period. Such activity plays a crucial role in the epidemic spread as traveling facilitates the spread of an epidemic between disparate locations and crowded conditions can accelerate the disease transmission. An additional component that affects disease spread is the seasonality in transmission. In this paper, we study the interplay between the periodic natures of seasonal transmission and of an annual mass gathering event. We find that the timing of the gathering relative to the peak in transmissibility can have a profound impact on the likelihood of an outbreak.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalSeasonsTravelCommunicable DiseasesDisease OutbreaksEpidemicsHumansPopulation DynamicsEpidemic spreadMass gatheringMathematical modelMonodromy matrixSeasonal transmission

Identifiers

PMID30905600

DOI10.1016/j.mbs.2019.03.006

PMCPMC7094523

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.