ArticlePLoS computational biology2019
An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how uncertainty about breakthrough infections influences vaccination impact projections.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- Early warning of serotype replacement, spatial risk redistribution, and shifting clinical phenotypes: Insights from the 2023-2025 dengue outbreak in Meta, Colombia.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Observational
- Dengue vaccine acceptability in Peru: A mixed-methods study in two dengue-endemic Peruvian cities.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Bang-bang control optimization in infectious disease model with incorporating breakthrough and reinfection.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- The evolution of public health statistical modeling approaches and how to advance their incorporation into modern arboviral surveillance.Journal of medical entomology · 2026Article
- Flexible school attendance strategies for epidemic outbreaks: simulation-based decision support.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Gaussian process emulation for exploring complex infectious disease models.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Gaussian Process Emulation for Exploring Complex Infectious Disease Models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Catching a wave: On the suitability of traveling-wave solutions in epidemiological modeling.Theoretical population biology · 2025Article
- Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and the efficacy of different vaccines across different network structures.PloS one · 2025Article
- System identifiability in a time-evolving agent-based model.PloS one · 2024Article
- Fusing an agent-based model of mosquito population dynamics with a statistical reconstruction of spatio-temporal abundance patterns.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Short-term and long-term epidemiological impacts of sustained vector control in various dengue endemic settings: A modelling study.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- School Virus Infection Simulator for customizing school schedules during COVID-19.Informatics in medicine unlocked · 2022Article
- Dengue Vaccine: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, United States, 2021.MMWR. Recommendations and reports : Morbidity and mortality weekly report. Recommendations and reports · 2021Article
- Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malaria.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Bridging implementation gaps to connect large ecological datasets and complex models.Ecology and evolution · 2021Article
- Case-area targeted interventions (CATI) for reactive dengue control: Modelling effectiveness of vector control and prophylactic drugs in Singapore.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Pandemic-associated mobility restrictions could cause increases in dengue virus transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Socio-demographic and health factors drive the epidemic progression and should guide vaccination strategies for best COVID-19 containment.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Puerto Rico.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Prophylactic vaccination is a powerful tool for reducing the burden of infectious diseases, due to a combination of direct protection of vaccinees and indirect protection of others via herd immunity. Computational models play an important role in devising strategies for vaccination by making projections of its impacts on public health. Such projections are subject to uncertainty about numerous factors, however. For example, many vaccine efficacy trials focus on measuring protection against disease rather than protection against infection, leaving the extent of breakthrough infections (i.e., disease ameliorated but infection unimpeded) among vaccinees unknown. Our goal in this study was to quantify the extent to which uncertainty about breakthrough infections results in uncertainty about vaccination impact, with a focus on vaccines for dengue. To realistically account for the many forms of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, which could have implications for the dynamics of indirect protection, we used a stochastic, agent-based model for DENV transmission informed by more than a decade of empirical studies in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Following 20 years of routine vaccination of nine-year-old children at 80% coverage, projections of the proportion of disease episodes averted varied by a factor of 1.76 (95% CI: 1.54-2.06) across the range of uncertainty about breakthrough infections. This was equivalent to the range of vaccination impact projected across a range of uncertainty about vaccine efficacy of 0.268 (95% CI: 0.210-0.329). Until uncertainty about breakthrough infections can be addressed empirically, our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for it in models of vaccination impact.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.