ArticleInternational journal of STD & AIDS2019
Modeling economic and epidemiological impact of voluntary medical male circumcision among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.
Article in International journal of STD & AIDS, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- Critical evaluation of arguments opposing male circumcision: A systematic review.Journal of evidence-based medicine · 2019Pooled it
- Predicting the long-term impact of voluntary medical male circumcision on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.AIDS care · 2020Article
- Interventions to improve the HIV continuum of care in China.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2019Review
- Voluntary medical male circumcision and HIV infection among men who have sex with men: Implications from a systematic review.SAGE open medicine · 2019Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among men who have sex with men (MSM) may protect against HIV acquisition. We conducted a series of analyses to assess if expanded VMMC might reduce HIV incidence among MSM effectively and economically. We used a deterministic compartmental model to project new HIV cases (2016-2026) under annual VMMC coverage rates (λ) ranging from 0.0001 to 0.15. The 'number needed to avert' (NNA) is defined as the cumulative number of VMMCs conducted up to that year divided by the cumulative number of HIV cases averted in that specific year. Compared with the baseline circumcision coverage rate, we projected that new HIV cases would be reduced with increasing coverage. By 2026 (last year simulated), the model generated the lowest ratio (11.10) when the annual circumcision rate was the most optimistic (λ = 0.15). The breakeven point was observed at the year of 2019 with the annual VMMC coverage rate of 0.001. The total cost saved by averting HIV cases would range from 2.5 to 811 million US dollars by the end of 2026 with different hypothetical coverage rates. Our model suggests that acceleration in VMMC implementation among MSM could help stem the HIV/AIDS epidemic.
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Registered trials
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