Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30884954›Full record

ArticleThe American journal of hospice & palliative care2019

Medicare Cost at End of Life.

Ian Duncan, Tamim Ahmed, Henry Dove, Terri L Maxwell

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The American journal of hospice & palliative care, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
38citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

38 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Cost-Effectiveness of [Journal of nuclear medicine : official publication, Society of Nuclear Medicine · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Incremental Healthcare Costs of Dementia and Cognitive Impairment in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Rethinking Medical Aid in Dying: What Does It Mean to 'Do No Harm?'Journal of the advanced practitioner in oncology · 2023
    Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Ian Duncan1 Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9755-0740
Tamim Ahmed2 Santa Barbara Actuaries Inc, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Henry Dove3 Turn-Key Health, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Terri L Maxwell4 Case-Mix Analytics LLC, Handon, CT, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

As the Medicare program struggles to control expenditures, there is increased focus on opportunities to manage patient populations more efficiently and at a lower cost. A major source of expense for the Medicare program is beneficiaries at end of life. Estimates of the percentage of Medicare costs that arise from patients in the last year of life differ, ranging from 13% to 25%, depending on methods and assumptions. We analyze the most recently available Medicare Limited Data Set to update prior studies of end-of-life costs and examine different methods of performing this calculation. Based upon these findings, we conclude that higher estimates that take into account the spending over the 12 months leading up to death more accurately reflect the full cost of a patient's last year of life. Comparing current year costs of decedents with Medicare's current year costs understates the full budgetary impact of end-of-life patients. Because risk-taking entities such as Medicare Advantage plans and Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) need to reduce costs while improving the quality of care, they should initiate programs to better manage the care of patients with serious or advanced illness. We also calculate costs for beneficiaries dying in different settings and conclude that more effective use of palliative care and hospice benefits offers a lower cost, higher quality alternative for patients at end of life.

Indexed as

Accountable Care OrganizationsCenters for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S.FemaleHealth ExpendituresHospice CareHumansMaleMedicareMedicare Part CModels, EconomicTerminal CareUnited Statesend-of-life costshospiceinpatientmedicarepalliative carepopulation management

Identifiers

PMID30884954
PMCPMC6610551

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.