Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30871595›Full record

ArticleParasites & vectors2019

What makes the Asian bush mosquito Aedes japonicus japonicus feel comfortable in Germany? A fuzzy modelling approach.

Antje Kerkow, Ralf Wieland, Marcel B Koban, Franz Hölker, Jonathan M Jeschke, Doreen Werner, Helge Kampen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Parasites & vectors, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Antje KerkowLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany. antje.kerkow@zalf.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6371-4276
Ralf WielandLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.
Marcel B KobanLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.
Franz HölkerDepartment of Biology, Chemistry, Pharmacy, Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Str. 1-3, 14195, Berlin, Germany.
Jonathan M JeschkeDepartment of Biology, Chemistry, Pharmacy, Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Str. 1-3, 14195, Berlin, Germany.
Doreen WernerLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.
Helge KampenFriedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI), Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Südufer 10, 17493, Greifswald, Insel Riems, Germany.

Funding

Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft 2819105315Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) JE 288/9-2
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe Asian bush mosquito Aedes japonicus japonicus is an invasive species native to East Asia and has become established in North America and Europe. On both continents, the species has spread over wide areas. Since it is a potential vector of human and livestock pathogens, distribution and dissemination maps are urgently needed to implement targeted surveillance and control in case of disease outbreaks. Previous distribution models for Europe and Germany in particular focused on climate data. Until now, effects of other environmental variables such as land use and wind remained unconsidered.

resultsIn order to better explain the distribution pattern of Ae. j. japonicus in Germany at a regional level, we have developed a nested approach that allows for the combination of data derived from (i) a climate model based on a machine-learning approach; (ii) a landscape model developed by means of ecological expert knowledge; and (iii) wind speed data. The approach is based on the fuzzy modelling technique that enables to precisely define the interactions between the three factors and additionally considers uncertainties with regard to the acceptance of certain environmental conditions. The model combines different spatial resolutions of data for Germany and achieves a much higher degree of accuracy than previous published distribution models. Our results reveal that a well-suited landscape structure can even facilitate the occurrence of Ae. j. japonicus in a climatically unsuitable region. Vice versa, unsuitable land use types such as agricultural landscapes and coniferous forests reduce the occurrence probability in climatically suitable regions.

conclusionsThe approach has significantly improved existing distribution models of Ae. j. japonicus for the area of Germany. We generated distribution maps with a resolution of 100 × 100 m that can serve as a basis for the design of control measures. All model input data and scripts are open source and freely available, so that the model can easily be applied to other countries or, more generally, to other species.

Indexed as

AedesAnimal DistributionAnimalsClimateClimate ChangeGermanyIntroduced SpeciesLogistic ModelsMachine LearningMosquito VectorsWindAsian rock pool mosquitoBiological invasionsClimate changeLandscape interactionsLand useMachine learningNested approachSpecies distribution modelsWind speed

Identifiers

PMID30871595
PMCPMC6417263

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.