ArticleHarm reduction journal2019
Prevalence of injecting drug use in Estonia 2010-2015: a capture-recapture study.
Article in Harm reduction journal, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- The nitazene epidemic in Estonia: a first report.European journal of public health · 2025Article
- Prevalence of chronic hepatitis C infection in the general population: results from a national survey, Estonia, July to December 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Estimates of people who injected drugs within the last 12 months in Belgium based on a capture-recapture and multiplier method.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2021Article
- Use of Population-Based Surveys for Estimating the Population Size of Persons Who Inject Drugs in the United States.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
- The fentanyl epidemic in Estonia: factors in its evolution and opportunities for a comprehensive public health response, a scoping review.The International journal on drug policy · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIt has been observed in an earlier study that the number of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Estonia is declining. We provide nationwide estimates of the number of PWID in Estonia for years 2010-2015 and compare different modelling strategies to minimise over-coverage-induced bias in capture-recapture estimates.
methodsWe obtained data from the Estonian Causes of Death Registry (DR) for opioid-related deaths, the Estonian Health Insurance Fund (HIF) for opioid-related overdose and drug dependence treatment episodes, and the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board (PB) drug-related misdemeanours. Datasets were linked by identifier based on sex, date of birth, and initials; a capture-recapture method was used to estimate the number of PWID aged 15 or more, each year from 2010 to 2015. Log-linear regression maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods were used; over-coverage of police data was accounted for.
resultsThe annual population size estimates of the number of PWID (aged 15 and over) varied from 6000 to 17,300 (ML estimates not accounting for over-coverage of PB) to 1500-2300 (Bayesian estimates accounting for over-coverage). Bayesian estimates indicated a slight decrease in the number of PWID, and the median estimates were > 2000 in years 2010-2012 and < 1800 in years 2013-2015.
conclusionsOver-coverage of a registry can have a great impact on the estimates of the size of the target population. Bayesian estimates accounting for this over-coverage may provide better estimates of the target population size.
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