Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30870196›Full record

ArticleAIDS (London, England)2019

A generalizable method for estimating duration of HIV infections using clinical testing history and HIV test results.

Christopher D Pilcher, Travis C Porco, Shelley N Facente, Eduard Grebe, Kevin P Delaney, Silvina Masciotra, Reshma Kassanjee, Michael P Busch, Gary Murphy, S Michele Owen and 2 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
2.5field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 22 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.

Christopher D PilcherUniversity of California, San Francisco.
Travis C PorcoUniversity of California, San Francisco.
Shelley N FacenteUniversity of California, San Francisco.
Eduard GrebeVitalant Research Institute (formerly Blood Systems Research Institute), San Francisco.
Kevin P DelaneyCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Silvina MasciotraCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Reshma KassanjeeThe South African DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Michael P BuschUniversity of California, San Francisco.
Gary MurphyPublic Health England, London, United Kingdom.
S Michele OwenCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Alex WelteThe South African DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA)
Blood Systems Research Institute · USCenters for Disease Control and Prevention · USStellenbosch University · ZAUniversity of California, San Francisco · USPublic Health England · GB

Funding

Virology CoreP30AI027763 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI STEVEN Grant DEEKS · 1988 to 2026
$93.6M
A Pilot of Intervention to Promote Acute HIV Testing by Ambulatory Care ProvidersR34MH096606 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI PILCHER, CHRISTOPHER D · 2012 to 2014
$693k
NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027763NIMH NIH HHS R34 MH096606
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo determine the precision of new and established methods for estimating duration of HIV infection.

designA retrospective analysis of HIV testing results from serial samples in commercially available panels, taking advantage of extensive testing previously conducted on 53 seroconverters.

methodsWe initially investigated four methods for estimating infection timing: method 1, 'Fiebig stages' based on test results from a single specimen; method 2, an updated '4th gen' method similar to Fiebig stages but using antigen/antibody tests in place of the p24 antigen test; method 3, modeling of 'viral ramp-up' dynamics using quantitative HIV-1 viral load data from antibody-negative specimens; and method 4, using detailed clinical testing history to define a plausible interval and best estimate of infection time. We then investigated a 'two-step method' using data from both methods 3 and 4, allowing for test results to have come from specimens collected on different days.

resultsFiebig and '4th gen' staging method estimates of time since detectable viremia had similar and modest correlation with observed data. Correlation of estimates from both new methods (3 and 4), and from a combination of these two ('two-step method') was markedly improved and variability significantly reduced when compared with Fiebig estimates on the same specimens.

conclusionThe new 'two-step' method more accurately estimates timing of infection and is intended to be generalizable to more situations in clinical medicine, research, and surveillance than previous methods. An online tool is now available that enables researchers/clinicians to input data related to method 4, and generate estimated dates of detectable infection.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsHIV-1HIV AntibodiesHIV Core Protein p24HIV InfectionsHumansInternetRetrospective StudiesSoftwareTimeViral LoadViremiaHIV AntibodiesHIV Core Protein p24

Identifiers

PMID30870196
PMCPMC6561657
OpenAlexW2924749797

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.