ArticleEpidemiology and infection2019
Modelling the epidemiologic impact of achieving UNAIDS fast-track 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets in South Africa.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Intimate Partner Violence and Determinants of HIV Seroconversion among Female Caregivers in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa: Insights from the Asenze Longitudinal Study.AIDS and behavior · 2025Article
- Trajectories and predictors of HIV care retention among individuals receiving ART in rural South Africa: a group-based trajectory modelling analysis.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- The prevalence, incidence, and sociodemographic risk factors of HIV among older adults in sub-Saharan Africa (AWI-Gen): a multicentre, longitudinal cohort study.The lancet. Healthy longevity · 2025Article
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- Agent based modelling of blood borne viruses: a scoping review.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
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- The impact of same-day antiretroviral therapy initiation on retention in care and clinical outcomes at four eThekwini clinics, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- HIV self-testing: a cross-sectional survey conducted among students at a tertiary institution in Johannesburg, South Africa in 2020.Journal of public health in Africa · 2023Article
- Effect of perceived HIV risk on initiation of antiretroviral therapy during the universal test and treat era in South Africa.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Health Care Providers' Challenges to High-Quality HIV Care and Antiretroviral Treatment Retention in Rural South Africa.Qualitative health research · 2021Article
- Mixed-method estimation of population-level HIV viral suppression rate in the Western Cape, South Africa.BMJ global health · 2020Article
- Article
- Simulating the End of AIDS in New York: Using Participatory Dynamic Modeling to Improve Implementation of the Ending the Epidemic Initiative.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
UNAIDS established fast-track targets of 73% and 86% viral suppression among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals by 2020 and 2030, respectively. The epidemiologic impact of achieving these goals is unknown. The HIV-Calibrated Dynamic Model, a calibrated agent-based model of HIV transmission, is used to examine scenarios of incremental improvements to the testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) continuum in South Africa in 2015. The speed of intervention availability is explored, comparing policies for their predicted effects on incidence, prevalence and achievement of fast-track targets in 2020 and 2030. Moderate (30%) improvements in the continuum will not achieve 2020 or 2030 targets and have modest impacts on incidence and prevalence. Improving the continuum by 80% and increasing availability reduces incidence from 2.54 to 0.80 per 100 person-years (-1.73, interquartile range (IQR): -1.42, -2.13) and prevalence from 26.0 to 24.6% (-1.4 percentage points, IQR: -0.88, -1.92) from 2015 to 2030 and achieves fast track targets in 2020 and 2030. Achieving 90-90-90 in South Africa is possible with large improvements to the testing and treatment continuum. The epidemiologic impact of these improvements depends on the balance between survival and transmission benefits of ART with the potential for incidence to remain high.
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