ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2019
Improvements in the HIV care continuum needed to meaningfully reduce HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Baltimore, US: a modelling study for HPTN 078.
Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 17 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- The COMEBACK Study: Social Determinants of Health Impact on Virologic Suppression in a 48-Week Low-Barrier-Care Study of Rapid Antiretroviral Therapy Reinitiation Among Persons With HIV Lost to Care.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Trial
- Racial Disparities in HIV Prevalence, Testing, and Care Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Baltimore from 2008 to 2023: Fifteen Years of HIV Behavioral Surveillance.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Estimating the impact of HIV PrEP regimens containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine among men who have sex with men in the United States: a mathematical modelling study for HPTN 083.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- How Can Progress Toward Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic in the United States Be Monitored?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Community engagement and linkage to care efforts by peer community-health workers to increase PrEP uptake among sexual minority men.Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.) · 2021Observational
- The potential effect of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study.The lancet. HIV · 2021Article
- Article
- Modeling an integrated HIV prevention and care continuum to achieve the Ending the HIV Epidemic goals.AIDS (London, England) · 2020Article
- Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020Article
- Understanding the HIV Epidemic Among MSM in Baltimore: A Modeling Study Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions and Who Acquired and Contributed to Infections.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2020Article
- Improvements in the HIV care continuum needed to meaningfully reduce HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Baltimore, US: a modelling study for HPTN 078.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- Multilevel Stigma and Its Associations with Medical Care Ratings Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in HPTN 078.Journal of primary care & community healthArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
14 authors at 9 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionHIV prevalence is high among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Baltimore, Maryland, United States, and the levels of viral suppression among HIV-positive MSM are relatively low. The HIV Prevention Trials Network 078 trial seeks to increase the levels of viral suppression among US MSM by increasing the rates of diagnosis and linkage to care and treatment. We estimated the increases in viral suppression needed to reach different HIV incidence reduction targets, and the impact of meeting diagnosis and treatment targets.
methodsWe used a mathematical model of HIV transmission among MSM from Baltimore, US, parameterised with behavioural data and fitted to HIV prevalence and care continuum data for Baltimore wherever possible, to project increases in viral suppression needed to reduce the HIV incidence rate among Baltimore MSM by 10, 20, 30 or 50% after 2, 5 and 10 years. We also projected HIV incidence reductions achieved if US national targets - 90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) know their HIV serostatus, 90% of those diagnosed are retained in HIV medical care and 80% of those diagnosed are virally suppressed - or UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets (90% of PLHIV know their status, 90% of those diagnosed receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), 90% of those receiving ART are virally suppressed) are each met by 2020.
resultsTo reduce the HIV incidence rate by 20% and 50% after five years (compared with the base-case at the same time point), the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM who are virally suppressed must increase above 2015 levels by a median 13 percentage points (95% uncertainty interval 9 to 16 percentage points) from median 49% to 60%, and 27 percentage points (22 to 35) from 49% to 75% respectively. Meeting all three US or 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets results in a 48% (31% to 63%) and 51% (38% to 65%) HIV incidence rate reduction in 2020 respectively.
conclusionsSubstantial improvements in levels of viral suppression will be needed to achieve significant incidence reductions among MSM in Baltimore, and to meet 2020 US and UNAIDS targets. Future modelling studies should additionally consider the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for MSM.
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