ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2019
The UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2021Pooled it
- Environmental and demographic determinants of Aedes albopictus seasonal activity in southern France: A modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Aedes albopictus and Dengue Transmission Risk in France Over the 21st Century.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Climate-based forecasting from national Culex mosquito surveillance to support West Nile and Usutu virus preparedness in England and Wales.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Ecology of mosquitoes in Scottish wetlands and confirmation of Culex pipiens biotype molestus and pipiens/molestus hybrids in Scotland.Parasites & vectors · 2026Article
- A blood safety perspective on emerging arboviral infections in the United Kingdom.Transfusion medicine (Oxford, England) · 2026Review
- Understanding Mosquito Vector Invasion Pathways: Synergistic Effects of Human Mobility, Climate and Natural Dispersal.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- Climate variability amplifies the need for vector-borne disease outbreak preparedness.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Aedes albopictus Is Rapidly Invading Its Climatic Niche in France: Wider Implications for Biting Nuisance and Arbovirus Control in Western Europe.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Climate-responsive vector control strategies for Aedes albopictus.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Review
- Impact of climate change and infectious diseases: Implications for healthcare providers in the UK.Future healthcare journal · 2025Article
- Invasive mosquito surveillance in the United Kingdom 2020 to 2024: First detection of Aedes aegypti eggs in the UK and further detection of Aedes albopictus.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Modelling the Lodi, 2023 and Fano 2024, Italy Dengue Outbreaks: The Effects of Control Strategies and Environmental Extremes.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action.Lancet (London, England) · 2024Review
- Present and future suitability of invasive and urban vectors through an environmentally driven mosquito reproduction number.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- The effect of climate change and temperature extremes onJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Integrating dynamic models and neural networks to discover the mechanism of meteorological factors on Aedes population.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- A difference in larval mosquito size allows a biocontrol agent to target the invasive species.Ecology and evolution · 2023Article
- A Multi-Species Simulation of Mosquito Disease Vector Development in Temperate Australian Tidal Wetlands Using Publicly Available Data.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is able to transmit various pathogens to humans and animals and it has already caused minor outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in southern Europe. Alarmingly, it is spreading northwards and its eggs have been found in the UK in 2016 and 2017. Climate-driven models can help to analyse whether this originally subtropical species could become established in northern Europe. But so far, these models have not considered the impact of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) experienced by mosquitoes in the field. Here, we describe a dynamical model for the life cycle of Ae. albopictus, taking into account the DTR, rainfall, photoperiod and human population density. We develop a new metric for habitat suitability and drive our model with different climate data sets to analyse the UK's suitability for this species. For now, most of the UK seems to be rather unsuitable, except for some densely populated and high importation risk areas in southeast England. But this picture changes in the next 50 years: future scenarios suggest that Ae. albopictus could become established over almost all of England and Wales, indicating the need for continued mosquito surveillance.
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