ArticleBMJ open2019
Lifetime risk of prostate cancer overdiagnosis in Australia: quantifying the risk of overdiagnosis associated with prostate cancer screening in Australia using a novel lifetime risk approach.
Article in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating the Proportion of Overdiagnosis among Prostate, Breast, and Thyroid Cancers in China: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2024Article
- Article
- Impact of the diagnostic label for a low-risk prostate lesion: protocol for two online factorial randomised experiments.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Benefits and harms of prostate specific antigen testing according to Australian guidelines.International journal of cancer · 2024Article
- Global, regional, and national lifetime probabilities of developing cancer in 2020.Science bulletin · 2023Article
- Assessing overdiagnosis of fecal immunological test screening for colorectal cancer with a digital twin approach.NPJ digital medicine · 2023Article
- Diagnostic activity impacts lifetime risk of prostate cancer diagnosis more strongly than life expectancy.PloS one · 2022Article
- The utility of magnetic resonance imaging in prostate cancer diagnosis in the Australian setting.BJUI compass · 2021Article
- Changes in cancer incidence and mortality in Australia over the period 1996-2015.BMC research notes · 2020Article
- Estimating the magnitude of cancer overdiagnosis in Australia.The Medical journal of Australia · 2020Article
- Differences in cancer survival by area-level socio-economic disadvantage: A population-based study using cancer registry data.PloS one · 2020Article
- Article
- Article
- Including Information on Overdiagnosis in Shared Decision Making: A Review of Prostate Cancer Screening Decision Aids.MDM policy & practiceArticle
- How Much Information Do Icelandic Men Receive on Pros and Cons of Prostate-Specific Antigen Testing Prior to Undergoing Testing?American journal of men's healthArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo quantify the risk of overdiagnosis associated with prostate cancer screening in Australia using a novel lifetime risk approach.
designModelling and validation of the lifetime risk method using publicly available population data.
settingOpportunistic screening for prostate cancer in the Australian population.
participantsAustralian male population (1982-2012).
interventionsProstate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer screening. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary: lifetime risk of overdiagnosis in 2012 (excess lifetime cancer risk adjusted for changing competing mortality); Secondary: lifetime risk of prostate cancer diagnosis (unadjusted and adjusted for competing mortality); Excess lifetime risk of prostate cancer diagnosis (for all years subsequent to 1982).
resultsThe lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer increased from 6.1% in 1982 (1 in 17) to 19.6% in 2012 (1 in 5). Using 2012 competing mortality rates, the lifetime risk in 1982 was 11.5% (95% CI 11.0% to 12.0%). The excess lifetime risk of prostate cancer in 2012 (adjusted for changing competing mortality) was 8.2% (95% CI 7.6% to 8.7%) (1 in 13). This corresponds to 41% of prostate cancers being overdiagnosed.
conclusionsOur estimated rate of overdiagnosis is in agreement with estimates using other methods. This method may be used without the need to adjust for lead times. If annual (cross-sectional) data are used, then it may give valid estimates of overdiagnosis once screening has been established long enough for the benefits from the early detection of non-overdiagnosed cancer at a younger age to be realised in older age groups.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.