ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2019
Predicting the Epidemiological Dynamics of Lung Cancer in Japan.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trial
- Spatial analysis of the percentages of smokers, alcohol drinkers, social welfare expenditure and insomniacs in Japan.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Clinical application of comprehensive genomic profiling panel to thoracic malignancies: A single-center retrospective study.Thoracic cancer · 2022Article
- Association between the frequency of surgeries for video-assisted thoracic surgery and the incidence of consequent surgical site infections: a retrospective observational study based on national surveillance data.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Observational
- An age-period-cohort analysis of mortality rates for stomach, colorectal, liver, and lung cancer among prefectures in Japan, 1999-2018.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2020Article
- Predicting Deep Learning Based Multi-Omics Parallel Integration Survival Subtypes in Lung Cancer Using Reverse Phase Protein Array Data.Biomolecules · 2020Article
- Effectiveness of Text-Only Cigarette Health Warnings in Japan: Findings from the 2018 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Japan Survey.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Accurate expression of PD-L1/L2 in lung adenocarcinoma cells: A retrospective study by double immunohistochemistry.Cancer science · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
While the prevalence of smoking has steadily declined over time, the absolute numbers of lung cancer cases and deaths have continued to increase in Japan. We employed a simple mathematical model that describes the relationship between demographic dynamics and smoking prevalence to predict future epidemiological trends of lung cancer by age and sex. Never-smokers, smokers, and ex-smokers were assumed to experience different hazard of lung cancer, and the model was parameterized using data from 2014 and before, as learning data, and a future forecast was obtained from 2015 onwards. The maximum numbers of lung cancer cases and deaths in men will be 76,978 (95% confidence interval (CI): 76,630⁻77,253) and 63,284 (95% CI: 62,991⁻63507) in 2024, while those in women will be 42,838 (95% CI: 42,601⁻43,095) and 32,267 (95% CI: 32,063⁻32,460) in 2035 and 2036, respectively. Afterwards, the absolute numbers of cases and deaths are predicted to decrease monotonically. Our compartmental modeling approach is well suited to predicting lung cancer in Japan with dynamic ageing and drastic decline in smoking prevalence. The predicted burden is useful for anticipating demands for diagnosis, treatment, and care in the healthcare sector.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.