Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30853029›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2019

Characterizing the transitioning epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 in the USA: model-based predictions.

Houssein H Ayoub, Hiam Chemaitelly, Laith J Abu-Raddad

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in BMC medicine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 77 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
77citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

77 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  14. Developments in genital herpes: progress in prevention and treatment.Current opinion in infectious diseases · 2026
    Review
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Herpes Simplex Virus Neurovirulence Across the Human Lifespan.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025
    Review
  19. Article
  20. Article

17 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Houssein H AyoubDepartment of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, P.O. Box 2713, Doha, Qatar. hayoub@qu.edu.qa.
Hiam ChemaitellyInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar.
Laith J Abu-RaddadInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, P.O. Box 24144, Doha, Qatar. lja2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu.ORCID 0000-0003-0790-0506

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundHerpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) is a prevalent lifelong infection that appears to be undergoing an epidemiologic transition in the United States (US). Using an analytical approach, this study aimed to characterize HSV-1 transitioning epidemiology and estimate its epidemiologic indicators, past, present, and future.

methodsAn age-structured mathematical model was developed to describe HSV-1 transmission through oral and sexual modes of transmission. The model was fitted to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 1976-2016 data series.

resultsHSV-1 seroprevalence was projected to decline from 61.5% in 1970 to 54.8% in 2018, 48.5% in 2050, and 42.0% in 2100. In < 3 decades, seroprevalence declined by > 30% for those aged 0-19 years, but < 5% for those aged > 60. Meanwhile, the number of new infections per year (oral and genital) was persistent at 2,762,000 in 1970, 2,941,000 in 2018, 2,933,000 in 2050, and 2,960,000 in 2100. Of this total, genital acquisitions contributed 252,000 infections in 1970, 410,000 in 2018, 478,000 in 2050, and 440,000 in 2100-a quarter of which are symptomatic with clinical manifestations. For those aged 15-49 years, nearly 25% of incident infections are genital. Most genital acquisitions (> 85%) were due to oral-to-genital transmission through oral sex, as opposed to genital-to-genital transmission through sexual intercourse.

conclusionHSV-1 epidemiology is undergoing a remarkable transition in the US, with less exposure in childhood and more in adulthood, and less oral but more genital acquisition. HSV-1 will persist as a widely prevalent infection, with ever-increasing genital disease burden.

Indexed as

Seroepidemiologic StudiesAdolescentAdultChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHerpes GenitalisHerpesvirus 1, HumanHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleUnited StatesYoung AdultGenital herpesHerpes simplex virus type 1IncidenceMathematical modelOral herpesPrevalenceUnited States

Identifiers

PMID30853029
PMCPMC6410528

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.