ArticleNature communications2019
Inter-annual variation in seasonal dengue epidemics driven by multiple interacting factors in Guangzhou, China.
Article in Nature communications, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 55 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmacological Interventions on Dengue Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022Pooled it
- Assessing the impact of intervention strategies on dengue dynamics in Shenzhen, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Global source-sink dynamics of dengue viruses and epidemic establishment in areas on the fringe of endemic transmission.National science review · 2026Article
- Seroprevalence of dengue in the general population of a Chinese southwestern border city: a community-based cross-sectional study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- The Impact of Extreme Weather on Dengue Fever in Guangzhou, China: A Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Spatial Lag Analysis.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- A novel approach to quantify the optimal range and causal effect of rainfall on vector-borne diseases: a case study of dengue epidemics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Review
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of dengue fever in China.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Climate, demography, immunology, and virology combine to drive two decades of dengue virus dynamics in Cambodia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Integrating dynamic models and neural networks to discover the mechanism of meteorological factors on Aedes population.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Long-term effects of climate factors on dengue fever over a 40-year period.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Advancing knowledge of One Health in China: lessons for One Health from China's dengue control and prevention programs.Science in One Health · 2024Review
- Short-term effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue: a time-series study in Guangzhou, China.Parasites & vectors · 2022Article
- An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases in China: A Review of Evidence and Implications for Risk Management.Biology · 2022Review
- The impacts of precipitation patterns on dengue epidemics in Guangzhou city.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
- Interaction of climate and socio-ecological environment drives the dengue outbreak in epidemic region of China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Pandemic-associated mobility restrictions could cause increases in dengue virus transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Extreme weather events and dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China: a time-series quasi-binomial distributed lag non-linear model.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases display wide inter-annual variation in seasonal epidemic size due to their complex dependence on temporally variable environmental conditions and other factors. In 2014, Guangzhou, China experienced its worst dengue epidemic on record, with incidence exceeding the historical average by two orders of magnitude. To disentangle contributions from multiple factors to inter-annual variation in epidemic size, we fitted a semi-mechanistic model to time series data from 2005-2015 and performed a series of factorial simulation experiments in which seasonal epidemics were simulated under all combinations of year-specific patterns of four time-varying factors: imported cases, mosquito density, temperature, and residual variation in local conditions not explicitly represented in the model. Our results indicate that while epidemics in most years were limited by unfavorable conditions with respect to one or more factors, the epidemic in 2014 was made possible by the combination of favorable conditions for all factors considered in our analysis.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.