ArticlePLoS computational biology2019
A dynamic power-law sexual network model of gonorrhoea outbreaks.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review to identify research gaps in studies modeling MenB vaccinations against Neisseria infections.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- Forecasting of infectious disease epidemics in sexual networks using attenuated renewal processes.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Extensive cryptic circulation sustains mpox among men who have sex with men.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Simulating a potential mpox outbreak: Implications for control in non-endemic settings.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Relationship dynamics and behavioral adaptations in the control of the 2022 mpox epidemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- The Influence of Epidemiologic Context on the Success of Partner Notification Programs: Analysis of Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Incorporating Epidemiological Data into the Genomic Analysis of Partially Sampled Infectious Disease Outbreaks.Molecular biology and evolution · 2025Article
- Behavior changes influence mpox transmission in the United States, 2022-2023: Insights from homogeneous and heterogeneous models.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Review of mathematical models of Neisseria gonorrhoeae vaccine impact: Implications for vaccine development.Vaccine · 2024Review
- Article
- Early underdetected dissemination across countries followed by extensive local transmission propelled the 2022 mpox epidemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Estimating the fitness cost and benefit of antimicrobial resistance from pathogen genomic data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Power Law for Estimating Underdetection of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks, United States.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Global Emergence and Dissemination of Neisseria gonorrhoeae ST-9363 Isolates with Reduced Susceptibility to Azithromycin.Genome biology and evolution · 2022Article
- Genomic Epidemiology Analysis of Infectious Disease Outbreaks Using TransPhylo.Current protocols · 2021Article
- Sudden emergence of aMicrobial genomics · 2020Article
- Assessment of the Potential of Vaccination to Combat Antibiotic Resistance in Gonorrhea: A Modeling Analysis to Determine Preferred Product Characteristics.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
- Accuracy of Gram-stained smears as screening tests forIndian journal of sexually transmitted diseases and AIDSArticle
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3 authors.
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Abstract
Human networks of sexual contacts are dynamic by nature, with partnerships forming and breaking continuously over time. Sexual behaviours are also highly heterogeneous, so that the number of partners reported by individuals over a given period of time is typically distributed as a power-law. Both the dynamism and heterogeneity of sexual partnerships are likely to have an effect in the patterns of spread of sexually transmitted diseases. To represent these two fundamental properties of sexual networks, we developed a stochastic process of dynamic partnership formation and dissolution, which results in power-law numbers of partners over time. Model parameters can be set to produce realistic conditions in terms of the exponent of the power-law distribution, of the number of individuals without relationships and of the average duration of relationships. Using an outbreak of antibiotic resistant gonorrhoea amongst men have sex with men as a case study, we show that our realistic dynamic network exhibits different properties compared to the frequently used static networks or homogeneous mixing models. We also consider an approximation to our dynamic network model in terms of a much simpler branching process. We estimate the parameters of the generation time distribution and offspring distribution which can be used for example in the context of outbreak reconstruction based on genomic data. Finally, we investigate the impact of a range of interventions against gonorrhoea, including increased condom use, more frequent screening and immunisation, concluding that the latter shows great promise to reduce the burden of gonorrhoea, even if the vaccine was only partially effective or applied to only a random subset of the population.
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