Comparison of infinitesimal and finite locus models for long-term breeding simulations with direct and maternal effects at the example of honeybees.

Stochastic simulation studies of animal breeding have mostly relied on either the infinitesimal genetic model or finite polygenic models. In this study, we investigated the long-term effects of the chosen model on honeybee breeding schemes. We implemented the infinitesimal model, as well as finite locus models, with 200 and 400 gene loci and simulated populations of 300 and 1000 colonies per year over the course of 100 years. The selection was of a directly and maternally influenced trait with maternal heritability of [Formula: see text], direct heritability of [Formula: see text], and a negative correlation between the effects of rmd = - 0.18. Another set of simulations was run with parameters [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and rmd = - 0.53. All models showed similar behavior for the first 20 years. Throughout the study, we observed a higher genetic gain in the direct than in the maternal effects and a smaller gain with a stronger negative covariance. In the long-term, however, only the infinitesimal model predicted sustainable linear genetic progress, while the finite locus models showed sublinear behavior and, after 100 years, only reached between 58% and 62% of the mean breeding values in the infinitesimal model. While the infinitesimal model suggested a reduction of genetic variance by 33% to 49% after 100 years, the finite locus models saw a more drastic loss of 76% to 92%. When designing sustainable breeding strategies, one should, therefore, not blindly trust the infinitesimal model as the predictions may be overly optimistic. Instead, the more conservative choice of the finite locus model should be favored.