ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2018
Another look at silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- A silent epidemic? Poliomyelitis, disability burden, and social impact in Turkey (1942-1968).BMC public health · 2026Article
- Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame.PLOS global public health · 2025Review
- Worst-case scenarios: Modeling uncontrolled type 2 polio transmission.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Article
- Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are….Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Borno and Yobe, Northeast Nigeria.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication.Expert review of vaccines · 2020Review
- Article
- Evaluating the probability of silent circulation of polio in small populations using the silent circulation statistic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSilent circulation of polioviruses complicates the polio endgame and motivates analyses that explore the probability of undetected circulation for different scenarios. A recent analysis suggested a relatively high probability of unusually long silent circulation of polioviruses in small populations (defined as 10,000 people or smaller).
methodsWe independently replicated the simple, hypothetical model by Vallejo et al. (2017) and repeated their analyses to explore the model behavior, interpretation of the results, and implications of simplifying assumptions.
resultsWe found a similar trend of increasing times between detected cases with increasing basic reproduction number (R
conclusionsAvoiding gaps in surveillance remains critical to declaring wild poliovirus elimination with high confidence as soon as possible after the last detected poliovirus, but concern about transmission in small populations with adequate surveillance should not significantly change the criteria for the certification of wild polioviruses.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.