ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2018
Relatedness of the incidence decay with exponential adjustment (IDEA) model, "Farr's law" and SIR compartmental difference equation models.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- [Lower frequency and letality in women and in altitude due to COVID-19: Two sides of the same coin].Archivos de bronconeumologia · 2021Article
- How epidemics end.Centaurus; international magazine of the history of science and medicine · 2021Article
- The behaviour of infection, survival and testing effort variables of SARS-CoV-2: A theoretical modelling based on optimization technique.Results in physics · 2020Article
- Estimating the Cumulative Incidence of COVID-19 in the United States Using Four Complementary Approaches.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020Article
- Associations of Stay-at-Home Order and Face-Masking Recommendation with Trends in Daily New Cases and Deaths of Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 in the United States.Exploratory research and hypothesis in medicine · 2020Article
- COVID-19 pandemic and Farr's law: A global comparison and prediction of outbreak acceleration and deceleration rates.PloS one · 2020Article
- Trends and prediction in daily incidence of novel coronavirus infection in China, Hubei Province and Wuhan City: an application of Farr's law.American journal of translational research · 2020Article
- Discrete time forecasting of epidemics.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Estimation of Pneumonic Plague Transmission in Madagascar, August-November 2017.PLoS currents · 2018Article
- Utilizing Nontraditional Data Sources for Near Real-Time Estimation of Transmission Dynamics During the 2015-2016 Colombian Zika Virus Disease Outbreak.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2016Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics, but simple mathematical expressions have been in use for projection of epidemic trajectories for more than a century. We recently introduced a single equation model (the incidence decay with exponential adjustment, or IDEA model) that can be used for short-term epidemiological forecasting. In the mid-19th century, Dr. William Farr made the observation that epidemic events rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a bell-shaped curve. He noticed that this time-evolution behavior could be captured by a single mathematical formula ("Farr's law") that could be used for epidemic forecasting. We show here that the IDEA model follows Farr's law, and show that for intuitive assumptions, Farr's Law can be derived from the IDEA model. Moreover, we show that both mathematical approaches, Farr's Law and the IDEA model, resemble solutions of a susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) compartmental differential-equation model in an asymptotic limit, where the changes of disease transmission respond to control measures, and not only to the depletion of susceptible individuals. This suggests that the concept of the reproduction number
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