ArticleRoyal Society open science2018
The role of geospatial hotspots in the spatial spread of tuberculosis in rural Ethiopia: a mathematical model.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Geo-spatial high-risk clusters of Tuberculosis in the global general population: a systematic review.BMC public health · 2023Pooled it
- Effectiveness of spatially targeted interventions for control of HIV, tuberculosis, leprosy and malaria: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2021Pooled it
- Calibration of transmission-dynamic infectious disease models: A scoping review and reporting framework.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Article
- Clustering and risk factor analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in a district in Ethiopia: a population-based cohort study.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Geographical location and genotyping analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in the state of Nuevo Leon, Mexico.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Tuberculosis Distribution in Romania and Particulate Matter Pollution Associated With Risk of Infection.GeoHealth · 2024Article
- Spatially-targeted tuberculosis screening has limited impact beyond household contact tracing in Lima, Peru: A model-based analysis.PloS one · 2023Article
- Spatial scale of tuberculosis transmission in Lima, Peru.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Spatiotemporal Patterns of Tuberculosis in Hunan Province, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Quantifying geographic heterogeneity in TB incidence and the potential impact of geographically targeted interventions in South and North City Corporations of Dhaka, Bangladesh: a model-based study.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- The Importance of Heterogeneity to the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2019Article
- The role of geospatial hotspots in the spatial spread of tuberculosis in rural Ethiopia: a mathematical model.Royal Society open science · 2018Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Geospatial tuberculosis (TB) hotspots are hubs of TB transmission both within and across community groups. We aimed to quantify the extent to which these hotspots account for the spatial spread of TB in a high-burden setting. We developed spatially coupled models to quantify the spread of TB from geographical hotspots to distant regions in rural Ethiopia. The population was divided into three 'patches' based on their proximity to transmission hotspots, namely hotspots, adjacent regions and remote regions. The models were fitted to 5-year notification data aggregated by the metapopulation structure. Model fitting was achieved with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm using a Poisson likelihood to compare model-estimated notification rate with observed notification rates. A cross-coupled metapopulation model with assortative mixing by region closely fit to notification data as assessed by the deviance information criterion. We estimated 45 hotspot-to-adjacent regions transmission events and 2 hotspot-to-remote regions transmission events occurred for every 1000 hotspot-to-hotspot transmission events. Although the degree of spatial coupling was weak, the proportion of infections in the adjacent region that resulted from mixing with hotspots was high due to the high prevalence of TB cases in a hotspot region, with approximately 75% of infections attributable to hotspot contact. Our results suggest that the role of hotspots in the geospatial spread of TB in rural Ethiopia is limited, implying that TB transmission is primarily locally driven.
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