Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30833395›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2019

Assessment of extreme heat and hospitalizations to inform early warning systems.

Ambarish Vaidyanathan, Shubhayu Saha, Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera, Antonio Gasparrini, Nabill Abdurehman, Richard Jordan, Michelle Hawkins, Jeremy Hess, Anne Elixhauser

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 53 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
53citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

53 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Review
  6. Extreme Heat and Emergency Health Impacts in the US (2018-2025).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026
    Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. A healthy cities agenda for extreme heat adaptation in urban settings.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Ambarish VaidyanathanNational Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30341; rishv@cdc.gov.
Shubhayu SahaNational Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30341.
Ana M Vicedo-CabreraDepartment of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.
Antonio GasparriniDepartment of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.
Nabill AbdurehmanOak Ridge Institute of Science and Education, Oak Ridge, TN 37831.
Richard JordanSocial & Scientific Systems, Inc., Rockville, MD 20852.
Michelle HawkinsNational Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20910.
Jeremy HessCenter for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105.
Anne ElixhauserAgency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Rockville, MD 20852.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R013349/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Heat early warning systems and action plans use temperature thresholds to trigger warnings and risk communication. In this study, we conduct multistate analyses, exploring associations between heat and all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations, to inform the design and development of heat-health early warning systems. We used a two-stage analysis to estimate heat-health risk relationships between heat index and hospitalizations in 1,617 counties in the United States for 2003-2012. The first stage involved a county-level time series quasi-Poisson regression, using a distributed lag nonlinear model, to estimate heat-health associations. The second stage involved a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to pool county-specific exposure-response associations across larger geographic scales, such as by state or climate region. Using results from this two-stage analysis, we identified heat index ranges that correspond with significant heat-attributable burden. We then compared those with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service (NWS) heat alert criteria used during the same time period. Associations between heat index and cause-specific hospitalizations vary widely by geography and health outcome. Heat-attributable burden starts to occur at moderately hot heat index values, which in some regions are below the alert ranges used by the NWS during the study time period. Locally specific health evidence can beneficially inform and calibrate heat alert criteria. A synchronization of health findings with traditional weather forecasting efforts could be critical in the development of effective heat-health early warning systems.

Indexed as

Extreme HeatDisaster PlanningForecastingHospitalizationHumansPublic HealthRisk Assessmentearly warning systemsevidence-based decision makingextreme heatpublic healthpublic policy

Identifiers

PMID30833395
PMCPMC6431221

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.