Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30828120›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Statistical Association2018

Hidden population size estimation from respondent-driven sampling: a network approach.

Forrest W Crawford, Jiacheng Wu, Robert Heimer

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
34citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

34 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025
    Pooled it
  2. The Right to Be Counted: Unmasking First Nations and Métis Population Undercounts in Winnipeg, Manitoba.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026
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  13. Dependence-Robust Confidence Intervals for Capture-Recapture Surveys.Journal of survey statistics and methodology · 2023
    Article
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  16. An integrated abundance model for estimating county-level prevalence of opioid misuse in Ohio.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Forrest W CrawfordDepartment of Biostatistics.
Jiacheng WuDepartment of Biostatistics.
Robert HeimerDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases Yale School of Public Health.

Funding

Using Coincidence Analysis to Investigate Factors Affecting PrEP Initiation and Continuation in Southern ending the Epidemic CountiesP30MH062294 · NIMH · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Trace S Kershaw · 2001 to 2026
$48.5M
Yale University Clinical and Translational Science Award ProgramKL2TR000140 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI SHERWIN, ROBERT S · 2012 to 2015
$2.9M
Network-based epidemiology for hidden and hard-to-reach populationsDP2HD091799 · NICHD · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI CRAWFORD, FORREST WRENN · 2016 to 2016
$2.5M
Influences on HIV Prevalence and Service Access among IDUs in Russia and EstoniaR01DA029888 · NIDA · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI HEIMER, ROBERT, UUSKULA, ANNELI · 2010 to 2014
$2.0M
YALE BIOMEDICAL SUPERCOMPUTER: NEUROSCIENCES10RR019895 · NCRR · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI WILLIAMS, KENNETH ROBERT · 2004 to 2004
$1.6M
High Performance Computing Instrumentation for Yale University Biomedical HPC CenS10RR029676 · NCRR · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI BJORNSON, ROBERT DEAN · 2011 to 2011
$588k
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR000140NCRR NIH HHS S10 RR019895NCRR NIH HHS S10 RR029676NICHD NIH HHS DP2 HD091799NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA029888NIMH NIH HHS P30 MH062294
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Estimating the size of stigmatized, hidden, or hard-to-reach populations is a major problem in epidemiology, demography, and public health research. Capture-recapture and multiplier methods are standard tools for inference of hidden population sizes, but they require random sampling of target population members, which is rarely possible. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a survey method for hidden populations that relies on social link tracing. The RDS recruitment process is designed to spread through the social network connecting members of the target population. In this paper, we show how to use network data revealed by RDS to estimate hidden population size. The key insight is that the recruitment chain, timing of recruitments, and network degrees of recruited subjects provide information about the number of individuals belonging to the target population who are not yet in the sample. We use a computationally efficient Bayesian method to integrate over the missing edges in the subgraph of recruited individuals. We validate the method using simulated data and apply the technique to estimate the number of people who inject drugs in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Indexed as

hidden populationinjection drug usenetwork inferencepopulation size

Identifiers

PMID30828120
PMCPMC6392194

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.