ArticleThe Journal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery2019
A brain natriuretic peptide-based prediction model for atrial fibrillation after thoracic surgery: Development and internal validation.
Article in The Journal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 45 citations in OpenAlex.
- Development and validation of a novel prediction model for new-onset atrial fibrillation after lung resection.Annals of medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Does the surgical approach affect the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation after thoracic surgery? A systematic review and meta-analysis.Updates in surgery · 2025Pooled it
- Guideline
- 2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines.Journal of the American College of Cardiology · 2024Guideline
- Amiodarone with or without N-Acetylcysteine for the Prevention of Atrial Fibrillation after Thoracic Surgery: A Double-blind, Randomized Trial.Anesthesiology · 2022Trial
- Perioperative NT-proBNP in Lung Cancer Surgery: A Narrative Review of Mechanisms, Predictive Value, and Clinical Implications.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- Risk factors analysis and prediction models of atrial fibrillation/flutter after esophagectomy.Journal of cardiothoracic surgery · 2026Article
- Development of risk prediction model for new-onset atrial fibrillation in elderly patients undergoing video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery: a retrospective cohort study.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Observational
- The pcMPO-AF rule for predicting postoperative atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A New Era, New Risks: The Cardio-Oncology Perspective on Immunotherapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.Cancers · 2025Review
- N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide as a predictor of postoperative atrial fibrillation in off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting patients.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2025Article
- Deep learning radiomics model of epicardial adipose tissue for predicting postoperative atrial fibrillation after lung lobectomy in lung cancer patients.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Biomarkers for predicting atrial fibrillation: An explorative sub-analysis of the randomised SCREEN-AF trial.The European journal of general practice · 2024Article
- L-Carnitine: A New Therapeutic Option for the Prevention of Atrial Fibrillation in Non-Cardiac Surgery-A Single-Group Interventional Pilot Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Risk Factors and Prognosis of Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation in Elderly Patients Undergoing VATS Lung Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Vascular health and risk management · 2024Article
- Predicting 1-year non-cancer-related adverse events after lung resection.Interdisciplinary cardiovascular and thoracic surgery · 2023Article
- Evolving Perspectives on Esophagectomy Care: Clinical Update.Anesthesiology · 2023Article
- Impact of pulmonary vein anatomy and left atrial size on postoperative atrial fibrillation after esophagectomy for esophageal cancer.Esophagus : official journal of the Japan Esophageal Society · 2023Article
- Is intensive care necessary after major thoracic surgery? A propensity score-matched study.Turk gogus kalp damar cerrahisi dergisi · 2023Article
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6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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Abstract
objectivePostoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after anatomic thoracic surgery. Elevated preoperative brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) level is strongly associated with risk of POAF. We describe the development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for POAF that includes BNP and other clinical factors.
methodsClinical and preoperative BNP data were collected for 635 patients in sinus rhythm before anatomic lung (n = 540) or esophageal (n = 95) resection. The primary outcome was new onset of POAF (>5 minutes) during hospitalization. A prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis and internally validated using a bootstrap-resampling approach.
resultsPOAF occurred in 20% of patients (124 out of 635). BNP level was higher among patients with than without POAF (median, 45 vs 23 pg/mL; P < .0001). The final prediction model included 5 factors: age (odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.08; P = .001), body mass index (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.00-1.09; P = .016), BNP level (75th vs 25th percentile, 57.5 vs 12.5 pg/mL; OR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.26-3.43; P = .0003), history of atrial fibrillation (OR, 5.91; 95% CI, 2.47-14.11; P < .0001), and extent of surgery (compared with segmentectomy [reference]: pneumonectomy OR, 6.70; 95% CI, 1.91-24.70; esophagectomy OR, 4.93; 95% CI, 1.94-14.06; lobectomy OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 4.90-8.34; overall P = .0002). The model had good calibration and discrimination (C statistic, 0.736). After internal validation, optimism-corrected measures showed similarly good calibration and discrimination (C statistic, 0.720; 95% CI, 0.664-0.765).
conclusionsOur novel prediction model-based interactive calculator can be used to identify patients at high risk of POAF and could be incorporated into practice prevention guidelines.
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