ArticleNature communications2019
State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.
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Article in Nature communications, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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41citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
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41 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
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- Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Review
- Detect and attribute the extreme maize yield losses based on spatio-temporal deep learning.Fundamental research · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
50 authors.
Jacob SchewePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany. schewe@pik-potsdam.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9455-4159
Simon N GoslingSchool of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5973-6862
Christopher ReyerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
Fang ZhaoSchool of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China.
Philippe CiaisLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943
Joshua ElliottUniversity of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, 5735S. Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.
Louis FrancoisInstitut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique/U.R. SPHERES, Université de Liège, B-4000, LIEGE, Belgium.
Veronika HuberDepartment of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Ctra. de Utrera 1, 41013, Sevilla, Spain.
Heike K LotzeDepartment of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6258-1304
Sonia I SeneviratneETH Zurich, Land-Climate Dynamics, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9528-2917
Michelle T H van VlietWater Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2597-8422
Robert VautardLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5544-9903
Yoshihide WadaInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-2539
Lutz BreuerInstitute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, 35390, Giessen, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9720-1076
Matthias BüchnerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
David A CarozzaDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 0E8, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7343-9442
Jinfeng ChangLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4463-7778
Marta CollInstitute of Marine Sciences (ICM - CSIC), Barcelona, E-08003, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6235-5868
Delphine DeryngLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, 15374, Germany.
Allard de WitWageningen Environmental Research, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5517-6404
Tyler D EddyDepartment of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2833-9407
Christian FolberthInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238
Katja FrielerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
Andrew D FriendDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK.
Dieter GertenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6214-6991
Lukas GudmundssonETH Zurich, Land-Climate Dynamics, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3539-8621
Naota HanasakiNational Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5092-7563
Akihiko ItoNational Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5265-0791
Nikolay KhabarovInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668
Hyungjun KimInstitute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 153-8505, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1083-8416
Peter LawrenceTerrestrial Science Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4843-4903
Catherine MorfopoulosImperial College of London, Department of Life Science, Silwood Park Campus Buckhurst Rd, Berks, SL5 7PY, UK.
Christoph MüllerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9491-3550
Hannes Müller SchmiedInstitute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Altenhöferallee 1, 60438, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5330-9923
René OrthDepartment of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden.
Sebastian OstbergPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2368-7015
Yadu PokhrelDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, MI, 48824, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1367-216X
Thomas A M PughSchool of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.
Gen SakuraiInstitute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8604, Japan.
Yusuke SatohWater Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Erwin SchmidUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Feistmantelstrasse 4, 1180, Vienna, Austria.
Tobias StackeMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146, Hamburg, Germany.
Jeroen SteenbeekEcopath International Initiative, Bellaterra, 08193, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7878-8075
Jörg SteinkampSenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7861-8789
Qiuhong TangKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0886-6699
Hanqin TianSchool of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL, 36849, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1806-4091
Derek P TittensorDepartment of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.
Jan VolkholzPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
Xuhui WangLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Lila WarszawskiPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
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