Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30820566›Full record

ArticleNicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco2020

Young Adult Tobacco and E-cigarette Use Transitions: Examining Stability Using Multistate Modeling.

Raymond Niaura, Ilan Rich, Amanda L Johnson, Andrea C Villanti, Alexa R Romberg, Elizabeth C Hair, Donna M Vallone, David B Abrams

Erratum issuedAbstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 41 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
41citing papers in PubMed
3.5field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

41 citing papers in PubMed, 53 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  3. Continuous associations of the brief Wisconsin Inventory of Smoking Dependence Motives with transitions between cigarette and e-cigarette use.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Urinary Tobacco and Nicotine Exposure Biomarkers as Predictors of Transitions between Cigarette and e-Cigarette Use in the Exhale Longitudinal Cohort Study.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
    Observational
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  9. Co-occurring Change in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System (ENDS) and Cigarette Harm Perceptions and Use in Young Adults.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Raymond NiauraDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, NYU College of Global Public Health, New York, NY.
Ilan RichSchroeder Institute at Truth Initiative, Washington, DC.
Amanda L JohnsonSchroeder Institute at Truth Initiative, Washington, DC.
Andrea C VillantiVermont Center on Behavior and Health, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT.
Alexa R RombergSchroeder Institute at Truth Initiative, Washington, DC.
Elizabeth C HairSchroeder Institute at Truth Initiative, Washington, DC.
Donna M ValloneSchroeder Institute at Truth Initiative, Washington, DC.
David B AbramsDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, NYU College of Global Public Health, New York, NY.
American Legacy Foundation · USNew York College of Health Professions · USUniversity of Vermont · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThe objective of this study was to describe tobacco and nicotine product use state transition probabilities among youth and young adults over time.

methodsA national sample of young adult tobacco product users and nonusers between the ages of 18 and 34 years at baseline was surveyed at 6-month intervals for 3 years. Use and nonuse states were defined as mutually exclusive categories based on self-reported, past 30-day use of the various products. Never use, noncurrent use, and current use of combustible, noncombustible tobacco, and electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) products was assessed at each interval. A multistate model was fit to estimate transition probabilities between states and length of stay within each state.

resultsAfter 6 months, same-state transition probabilities were high for all use states (0.76-0.96), except for dual product use (0.48). After 3 years, transition probabilities were smaller and tended to converge toward combustible product use for baseline e-cigarette (0.42), combustible (0.51), and dual product users (0.52). Age was inversely associated with transition risk from never or noncurrent use to use of combustible or e-cigarette products.

conclusionsNever and noncurrent users, followed by combustible product users, were most likely to remain in those states throughout the 3-year observation interval. Users of any tobacco or e-cigarette product at baseline were most likely to transition to combustible product use or noncurrent use by the final follow-up. IMPLICATIONS: This study describes the probability of transitioning between various states of tobacco product use, including never and no current use, over a span of 3 years in a sample of young adults. This type of longitudinal description, which includes all tobacco product use states, is lacking in most studies that tend to focus on one or only a few products. The results suggest that it is important to assess outcomes over a sufficiently long period to capture true variability in patterns of product use.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultElectronic Nicotine Delivery SystemsFemaleHumansMaleSurveys and QuestionnairesTobacco ProductsTobacco UseVapingVermontYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID30820566
OpenAlexW2918224045

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.