ArticlePLoS computational biology2019
Development and validation of influenza forecasting for 64 temperate and tropical countries.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Unified climate factors predict influenza outbreak seasonality across tropical and temperate regions.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Noisy periodicity in tropical respiratory disease dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Disruption of winter influenza activity in Wuxi, China during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2013-2025): a counterfactual time-series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Forecasting influenza epidemics in China using transmission dynamic model with absolute humidity.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Causal inference concepts can guide research into the effects of climate on infectious diseases.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Improving influenza forecast in the tropics and subtropics: a case study of Hong Kong.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Characterizing the interactions between influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses and their implications for epidemic control.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.eLife · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Delineating the Seasonality of Varicella and Its Association With Climate in the Tropical Country of Colombia.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Development of Accurate Long-lead COVID-19 Forecast.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- The pitfalls of inferring virus-virus interactions from co-detection prevalence data: application to influenza and SARS-CoV-2.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Severe community-acquired pneumonia in Reunion Island: Epidemiological, clinical, and microbiological characteristics, 2016-2018.PloS one · 2022Article
- Effects of circulation weather types on influenza hospital admissions in Spain.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
- Modeling influenza seasonality in the tropics and subtropics.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
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- Forecasting influenza in Europe using a metapopulation model incorporating cross-border commuting and air travel.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Epidemiological trends in notified influenza cases in Australia's Northern Territory, 2007-2016.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2020Article
- Transmission-dynamics models for the SARS Coronavirus-2.American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
Accurate forecasts of influenza incidence can be used to inform medical and public health decision-making and response efforts. However, forecasting systems are uncommon in most countries, with a few notable exceptions. Here we use publicly available data from the World Health Organization to generate retrospective forecasts of influenza peak timing and peak intensity for 64 countries, including 18 tropical and subtropical countries. We find that accurate and well-calibrated forecasts can be generated for countries in temperate regions, with peak timing and intensity accuracy exceeding 50% at four and two weeks prior to the predicted epidemic peak, respectively. Forecasts are significantly less accurate in the tropics and subtropics for both peak timing and intensity. This work indicates that, in temperate regions around the world, forecasts can be generated with sufficient lead time to prepare for upcoming outbreak peak incidence.
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