ArticleScientific reports2019
Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought's impact on plant productivity.
Article in Scientific reports, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Lagged precipitation effects on plant production across terrestrial biomes.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- The Response and Recovery of Carbon and Water Fluxes in Australian Ecosystems Exposed to Severe Drought.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Tracking 21Nature communications · 2022Article
- What happens after drought ends: synthesizing terms and definitions.The New phytologist · 2022Review
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Model Farm.Journal of advances in modeling earth systems · 2022Article
- Disentangling the Legacies of Climate and Management on Tree Growth.Ecosystems (New York, N.Y.) · 2022Article
- Recent increases in drought frequency cause observed multi-year drought legacies in the tree rings of semi-arid forests.Oecologia · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0-6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO
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