SynthesisThe Lancet. Global health2019
Estimates of case-fatality ratios of measles in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and modelling analysis.
Synthesis in The Lancet. Global health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 47 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
47 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Estimating national-level measles case-fatality ratios in low-income and middle-income countries: an updated systematic review and modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2023Pooled it
- Estimates of Japanese Encephalitis mortality and morbidity: A systematic review and modeling analysis.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Estimating case fatality risk of severe Yellow Fever cases: systematic literature review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Pooled it
- Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Heritable IFNAR1 Deficiency in Oceania.Journal of paediatrics and child health · 2026Review
- Nipah virus matrix protein uses cortical actin to stabilize the virus assembly sites and promote budding.Science advances · 2025Article
- The challenge of protracted measles outbreaks in Kismayo, Somalia: A mixed-method investigation of measles burden and vaccination coverage during a 2020-2021 outbreak.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Epidemiological Investigation of Measles Outbreaks in Somalia: A Retrospective Study.Infection and drug resistance · 2025Article
- Time trend of measles burden on children and adolescents in BRICS-plus countries from 1990 to 2021 and prediction to 2032.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Article
- A review of safety and immunogenicity of a novel measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Review
- Measles Outbreaks in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Urgent Need for Strengthened Vaccination Efforts.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2024Article
- Extreme mortality during a historical measles outbreak on Rotuma is consistent with measles immunosuppression.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Article
- Measles outbreak investigation in Berhet District, North Shewa, Ethiopia.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Design and Execution of In Vitro Polymerase Assays for Measles Virus and Related Mononegaviruses.Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2024Article
- Global disability-adjusted life years and deaths attributable to child and maternal malnutrition from 1990 to 2019.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Impact and cost-effectiveness of measles vaccination through microarray patches in 70 low-income and middle-income countries: mathematical modelling and early-stage economic evaluation.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- Pervasive Parental Hesitancy and Resistance towards Measles Rubella Vaccination in Jordan.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized with measles during an outbreak in Somalia.IJID regions · 2023Article
- Determinants of measles persistence in Beijing, China: A modelling study.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
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6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn the 21st century, increases in immunisation coverage and decreases in under-5 mortality have substantially reduced the global burden of measles mortality. However, the assessment of measles mortality burden is highly dependent on estimates of case-fatality ratios for measles, which can vary according to geography, health systems infrastructure, prevalence of underlying risk factors, and measles endemicity. With imprecise case-fatality ratios, there is continued uncertainty about the burden of measles mortality and the effect of measles vaccination. In this study, we aimed to update the estimations of case-fatality ratios for measles, to develop a prediction model to estimate case-fatality ratios across heterogeneous groupings, and to project future case-fatality ratios for measles up to 2030.
methodsWe did a review of the literature to identify studies examining measles cases and deaths in low-income and middle-income countries in all age groups from 1980 to 2016. We extracted data on case-fatality ratios for measles overall and by age, where possible. We developed and examined several types of generalised linear models and determined the best-fit model according to the Akaike information criterion. We then selected a best-fit model to estimate measles case-fatality ratios from 1990 to 2015 and projected future case-fatality ratios for measles up to 2030.
findingsWe selected 124 peer-reviewed journal articles published between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016, for inclusion in the final review-85 community-based studies and 39 hospital-based studies. We selected a log-linear prediction model, resulting in a mean case-fatality ratio of 2·2% (95% CI 0·7-4·5) in 1990-2015. In community-based settings, the mean case-fatality ratio was 1·5% (0·5-3·1) compared with 2·9% (0·9-6·0) in hospital-based settings. The mean projected case-fatality ratio in 2016-2030 was 1·3% (0·4-3·7).
interpretationCase-fatality ratios for measles have seen substantial declines since the 1990s. Our study provides an updated estimation of case-fatality ratios that could help to refine assessment of the effect on mortality of measles control and elimination programmes.
fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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