Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30797228›Full record

ArticleBMC musculoskeletal disorders2019

The projected burden of primary total knee and hip replacement for osteoarthritis in Australia to the year 2030.

Ilana N Ackerman, Megan A Bohensky, Ella Zomer, Mark Tacey, Alexandra Gorelik, Caroline A Brand, Richard de Steiger

2 registry-linked trialsOpen access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC musculoskeletal disorders, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 227 papers, 16 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
227citing papers in PubMed, 16 pooled it
47.3field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05375565 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

Comparative Effects of Weight Bearing and Non-weight Bearing Exercises on Pain, Range of Motion and Disability in Patients With Total Hip Replacement

TypeinterventionalSponsorRiphah International UniversityRan2021 to 2022Enrolled22ConditionsTotal Hip ReplacementArmsweight bearing exercises, non weight bearing exercises
NCT06195423 narecruitingnot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

The Stop Osteoarthritis (SOAR) Hybrid Effectiveness-Implementation Type 1 Randomized Controlled Trial for Young People At-High-Risk of Early Onset Knee Osteoarthritis

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of British ColumbiaRan2024 to 2028Enrolled210ConditionsKnee Injuries, Anterior Cruciate Ligament Rupture, Osteoarthritis, KneeArmsStop OsteoARthritis (SOAR) program, Living Well after ACLR program
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

227 citing papers in PubMed, 16 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 475 citations in OpenAlex.

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  6. Hypertrophy Training Following A Total Hip Replacement: A Literature Review.International journal of sports physical therapy · 2024
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167 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Ilana N AckermanDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia. ilana.ackerman@monash.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6028-1612
Megan A BohenskyDepartment of Medicine (Royal Melbourne Hospital), The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Parkville, Victoria, 3050, Australia.
Ella ZomerDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia.
Mark TaceyDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia.
Alexandra GorelikDepartment of Medicine (Royal Melbourne Hospital), The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Parkville, Victoria, 3050, Australia.
Caroline A BrandDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia.
Richard de SteigerDepartment of Surgery, Epworth HealthCare, The University of Melbourne, 89 Bridge Road, Richmond, Victoria, 3121, Australia.
The Royal Melbourne Hospital · AUMonash University · AUNorthern Hospital · AUThe University of Melbourne · AU

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council 520004
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundComprehensive national joint replacement registries with well-validated data offer unique opportunities for examining the potential future burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) at a population level. This study aimed to forecast the burden of primary total knee (TKR) and hip replacements (THR) performed for OA in Australia to the year 2030, and to model the impact of contrasting obesity scenarios on TKR burden.

methodsDe-identified TKR and THR data for 2003-2013 were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Population projections and obesity trends were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with public and private hospital costs sourced from the National Hospital Cost Data Collection. Procedure rates were projected according to two scenarios: (1) constant rate of surgery from 2013 onwards; and (2) continued growth in surgery rates based on 2003-2013 growth. Sensitivity analyses were used to estimate future TKR burden if: (1) obesity rates continued to increase linearly; or (2) 1-5% of the overweight or obese population attained a normal body mass index.

resultsBased on recent growth, the incidence of TKR and THR for OA is estimated to rise by 276% and 208%, respectively, by 2030. The total cost to the healthcare system would be $AUD5.32 billion, of which $AUD3.54 billion relates to the private sector. Projected growth in obesity rates would result in 24,707 additional TKRs totalling $AUD521 million. A population-level reduction in obesity could result in up to 8062 fewer procedures and cost savings of up to $AUD170 million.

conclusionsIf surgery trends for OA continue, Australia faces an unsustainable joint replacement burden by 2030, with significant healthcare budget and health workforce implications. Strategies to reduce national obesity could produce important TKR savings.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessAdultAgedArthroplasty, Replacement, HipArthroplasty, Replacement, KneeAustraliaFemaleForecastingHealth Care CostsHealth SurveysHumansMaleMiddle AgedObesityOsteoarthritis, HipOsteoarthritis, KneeEconomic burden of diseaseObesityOsteoarthritisTotal hip replacementTotal knee replacement

Identifiers

PMID30797228
PMCPMC6387488
OpenAlexW2936381732

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.