ArticleBMC public health2019
Epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2015: a model-based analysis.
Article in BMC public health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemiological trends from 2005 to 2024 and forecasts for 2035 in Sichuan Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal distribution and detection of spatial clusters of tuberculosis in Hubei Province, China using FleXScan (2017-2023).BMC public health · 2025Article
- Evaluating the effectiveness of self-attention mechanism in tuberculosis time series forecasting.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Effects of meteorological factors on tuberculosis and potential modifiers in Zhejiang Province, China.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Factors affecting the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis based on the GTWR model in China, 2004-2021.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Prevalence trends, population characteristics and treatment outcomes of tuberculosis combined with diabetes in Southwest China: a register-based retrospective study.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Tuberculosis morbidity and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a life-threatening complex challenge.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2024Article
- Diagnostic performance of metagenomic next-generation sequencing and conventional microbial culture for spinal infection: a retrospective comparative study.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal Changes in Pulmonary Tuberculosis Incidence in a Low-Epidemic Area of China in 2005-2020: Retrospective Spatiotemporal Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Effect of adjusted cut-offs of interferon-γ release assays on diagnosis of tuberculosis in patients with fever of unknown origin.Journal of clinical tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases · 2022Article
- Effects and Interaction of Meteorological Factors on Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Urumqi, China, 2013-2019.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Article
- The association between extreme temperature and pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong Province, China, 2005-2016: a mixed method evaluation.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Study of the association of interferon-γ gene polymorphisms and Th1/Th2 balance in tuberculosis susceptibility.American journal of translational research · 2021Article
- Temperature and humidity associated with increases in tuberculosis notifications: a time-series study in Hong Kong.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- Clinical effect of vitamin D supplementation on patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and its influence on the expression of immune cells and inflammatory factors.Experimental and therapeutic medicine · 2020Article
- Spatiotemporal characteristics and the epidemiology of tuberculosis in China from 2004 to 2017 by the nationwide surveillance system.BMC public health · 2020Article
- An artificially simulated outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease.BMC public health · 2020Article
- Epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Anhui Province, Eastern China from 2013 to 2018.PloS one · 2020Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundWe used data released by the government to analyze the epidemiological distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2015, in order to provide a deeper understanding of trends in the epidemiology of pulmonary tuberculosis in China and a theoretical basis to assess the effectiveness of government interventions and develop more targeted prevention and control strategies.
methodsA discrete dynamic model was designed based on the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis and fitted to data published by the government to estimate changes in indicators such as adequate contact rate, prevalence of non-treated pulmonary tuberculosis (abbreviated as prevalence), and infection rate. Finally, we performed sensitivity analyses of the effects of parameters on the population infection rate.
resultsThe epidemiological features of pulmonary tuberculosis in China include a pattern of seasonal fluctuations, with the highest rates of infection in autumn and winter. The adequate contact rate has increased slightly from an average of 0.12/month in 2010 to an average of 0.21/month in 2015. The prevalence in the population has continued to decrease from 3.4% in early 2004 to 1.7% in late 2015. The Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) infection rate in the population decreased gradually from 42.3% at the beginning of 2004 to 36.7% at the end of 2015. The actual number of new infections gradually decreased from 1,300,000/year in 2010 to 1,100,000/year in 2015. The actual number of new patients each year has been relatively stable since 2010 and remains at approximately 2,600,000/year.
conclusionsThe population prevalence and the M. tuberculosis infection rate have decreased year by year since 2004, indicating that the tuberculosis epidemic in China has been effectively controlled. However, pulmonary tuberculosis has become increasingly contagious since 2010. China should focus on the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis during autumn and winter.
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