ArticleBMJ open2019
Forecasting and predicting intussusception in children younger than 48 months in Suzhou using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model.
Article in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Research and predictive analysis of the disease burden of bloodstream infectious diseases in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Rotavirus vaccination is a protective factor for adverse outcomes in primary intussusception: a single-center retrospective study.Translational pediatrics · 2024Article
- Association of meteorological factors with paediatric intussusception in Hangzhou: an 8-year retrospective cohort study.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Article
- Predictive study of tuberculosis incidence by time series method and Elman neural network in Kashgar, China.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Effect of manipulative reduction combined with air enema on intestinal mucosal immune function in children with intussusception.Pakistan journal of medical sciencesArticle
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveThe aims of this study were to highlight some epidemiological aspects of intussusception cases younger than 48 months and to develop a forecasting model for the occurrence of intussusception in children younger than 48 months in Suzhou.
designA retrospective study of intussusception cases that occurred between January 2007 and December 2017.
settingRetrospective chart reviews of intussusception paediatric patients in a large Children's hospital in South-East China were performed.
participantsThe hospital records of 13 887 intussusception cases in patients younger than 48 months were included in this study.
interventionsThe modelling process was conducted using the appropriate module in SPSS V.23.0.
methodsThe Box-Jenkins approach was used to fit a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to the monthly recorded intussusception cases in patients younger than 48 months in Suzhou from 2007 to 2016.
resultsEpidemiological analysis revealed that intussusception younger than 48 months was reported continuously throughout the year, with peaks in the late spring and early summer months. The most affected age group was younger than 36 months. The time-series analysis showed that an ARIMA (1,0,1 1,1,1)
conclusionARIMA models are useful for monitoring intussusception in patients younger than 48 months and provide an estimate of the variability to be expected in future cases in Suzhou. The models are helpful for predicting intussusception cases in Suzhou and could be useful for developing early warning systems. They may also play a key role in early detection, timely treatment and prevention of serious complications in cases of intussusception.
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