ArticlePloS one2019
Trend and projection of mortality rate due to non-communicable diseases in Iran: A modeling study.
Article in PloS one, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers.
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Who cites it
45 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mortality Patterns and Trends in Fars Province, Iran (2015-2024): A Retrospective Analysis of Death Records.Iranian journal of medical sciences · 2026Article
- Examine the effects of the developed Pender's model constructs on medication compliance and adherence to a low-salt diet in patients with uncontrolled hypertension.Journal of education and health promotion · 2026Article
- Evaluating Trends in Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Cardiovascular Diseases in the Southwest of Fars Province, 2013-2023: A Cross-Sectional Study.Health science reports · 2025Article
- How Iranian primary health care policies influenced equity: a historical critical analysis from policymakers' perspectives.BMC health services research · 2025Article
- Assessing the performance of public-private partnerships in non-communicable disease management with a mixed-methods approach.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal Patterns of Non-Communicable Disease Mortality in the Metropolitan Area of the Valley of Mexico, 2000-2019.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Challenges in Managing Noncommunicable Diseases: Perspectives of Family Physicians Practicing in Public‒Private Partnerships: A Qualitative Study.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Forecasting cardiovascular disease risk and burden in China from 2020 to 2030: a simulation study based on a nationwide cohort.Heart (British Cardiac Society) · 2025Observational
- Burden of type 2 diabetes in working-age adults (20-54 years): a GBD 2021 analysis projecting trends to 2035 and exploring the potential benefits of physical activity.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Identifying core leadership competencies to success non-communicable disease control and prevention programs: A mixed-methods study.PloS one · 2025Article
- Geographical, gender and age inequalities in non-communicable diseases both at national and provincial levels in Iran.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2024Review
- Sex disparity in the burden of NCDs and its four main subgroups in Iran 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2024Article
- Cardiometabolic risk factors trend in Iranian adults with hypertension over 15 years: findings of nationwide steps of 2007-2021.Journal of diabetes and metabolic disorders · 2024Article
- Motivations behind end-of-life care: a qualitative study of Iranian nurses' experiences.BMC palliative care · 2024Article
- Healthcare performance for patients with heart failure in Iran: addressing the tip of the iceberg.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Lipid accumulation product and type 2 diabetes risk: a population-based study.BMC endocrine disorders · 2024Article
- Association of serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D status with cardiometabolic risk factors and total and regional obesity in southern Iran: evidence from the PoCOsteo study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Review
- The Burden of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Attributable Risk Factors in Iran, 1990-2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Iranian journal of public health · 2024Article
- The interaction between general or abdominal obesity and hypertension on the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional analysis in Iranian adults from the RaNCD cohort study.BMC public health · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundFollowing the epidemiologic and demographic transition, non-communicable disease mortality is the leading cause of death in Iran. Projecting mortality trend can provide valuable tools for policy makers and planners. In this article, we have estimated the trend of non-communicable disease mortality during 2001-2015 and have projected it until 2030 at national and subnational levels in Iran.
methodsThe data employed was gathered from the Iranian death registration system and using the Spatio-temporal model, the trends of 4 major categories of non-communicable diseases (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, asthma and COPD, and diabetes) by 2030 were projected at the national and subnational levels.
resultsThe results indicated that age standardized mortality rate for cancers, CVDs, and Asthma and COPD will continue to decrease in both sexes (cancers: from 81.8 in 2015 to 45.2 in 2030, CVDs: 307.3 to 173.0, and Asthma and COPD: from 52.1 to 46.6); however, in terms of diabetes, there is a steady trend in both sexes at national level (from 16.6 to 16.5). Age standardized mortality rates for cancers and CVDs, in males and females, were high in all provinces in 2001. The variation between the provinces is clearer in 2015, and it is expected to significantly decrease in all provinces by 2030.
conclusionGenerally, the age standardized mortality rate from NCDs will decrease by 2030. Of course, given the experience of the past two decades in Iran, believing that the mortality rate will decrease may not be an easy notion to understand. However hard to believe, this decrease may be the result of better management of risk factors and early detection of patients due to more comprehensive care in all segments of society, as well as improved literacy and awareness across the country.
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