Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30760887›Full record

ArticleMolecular psychiatry2020

Polygenic predictors of age-related decline in cognitive ability.

Stuart J Ritchie, W David Hill, Riccardo E Marioni, Gail Davies, Saskia P Hagenaars, Sarah E Harris, Simon R Cox, Adele M Taylor, Janie Corley, Alison Pattie and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Molecular psychiatry, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
33citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

33 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. Lessons we learned from the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 and 1936.Genomic psychiatry : advancing science from genes to society · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Stuart J RitchieCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. stuart.j.ritchie@kcl.ac.uk.
W David HillCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Riccardo E MarioniCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Gail DaviesCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Saskia P HagenaarsCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Sarah E HarrisCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Simon R CoxCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4036-3642
Adele M TaylorDepartment of Psychology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Janie CorleyCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Alison PattieDepartment of Psychology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Paul RedmondDepartment of Psychology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
John M StarrCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Ian J DearyCentre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

Funding

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/F019394/1Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council SAG09977Medical Research Council MR/K026992/1Medical Research Council MR/R024065/1Medical Research Council MR/S015132/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Polygenic scores can be used to distil the knowledge gained in genome-wide association studies for prediction of health, lifestyle, and psychological factors in independent samples. In this preregistered study, we used fourteen polygenic scores to predict variation in cognitive ability level at age 70, and cognitive change from age 70 to age 79, in the longitudinal Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 study. The polygenic scores were created for phenotypes that have been suggested as risk or protective factors for cognitive ageing. Cognitive abilities within older age were indexed using a latent general factor estimated from thirteen varied cognitive tests taken at four waves, each three years apart (initial n = 1091 age 70; final n = 550 age 79). The general factor indexed over two-thirds of the variance in longitudinal cognitive change. We ran additional analyses using an age-11 intelligence test to index cognitive change from age 11 to age 70. Several polygenic scores were associated with the level of cognitive ability at age-70 baseline (range of standardized β-values = -0.178 to 0.302), and the polygenic score for education was associated with cognitive change from childhood to age 70 (standardized β = 0.100). No polygenic scores were statistically significantly associated with variation in cognitive change between ages 70 and 79, and effect sizes were small. However, APOE e4 status made a significant prediction of the rate of cognitive decline from age 70 to 79 (standardized β = -0.319 for carriers vs. non-carriers). The results suggest that the predictive validity for cognitive ageing of polygenic scores derived from genome-wide association study summary statistics is not yet on a par with APOE e4, a better-established predictor.

Indexed as

CognitionCognitive AgingGenome-Wide Association StudyAgedFemaleHumansIntelligence TestsMaleMultifactorial InheritanceNeuropsychological TestsScotland

Identifiers

PMID30760887
PMCPMC7515838

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.