C-reactive protein to albumin ratio is a key indicator in a predictive model for anastomosis leakage after esophagectomy: Application of classification and regression tree analysis.

backgroundAnastomotic leakage (AL), a serious complication after esophagectomy, might impair patient quality of life, prolong hospital stay, and even lead to surgery-related death. The aim of this study was to show a novel decision model based on classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for the prediction of postoperative AL among patients who have undergone esophagectomy.

methodsA total of 450 patients (training set: 356; test set: 94) with perioperative information were included. A decision tree model was established to identify the predictors of AL in the training set, which was validated in the test set. A receiver operating characteristic curve was also created to illustrate the diagnostic ability of the decision model.

resultsA total of 12.2% (55/450) of the 450 patients suffered AL, which was diagnosed at median postoperative day 7 (range: 6-16). The decision tree model, containing surgical duration, postoperative lymphocyte count, and postoperative C-reactive protein to albumin ratio, was established by CART analysis. Among the three variables, the postoperative C-reactive protein to albumin ratio was identified as the most important indicator in the CART model with normalized importance of 100%. According to the results validated in the test set, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of the prediction model were 80%, 98.8%, 88.9%, 97.6%, and 96.8%, respectively. Moreover, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.95.

conclusionThe decision model based on CART analysis presented good performance for predicting AL, and might allow the early identification of patients at high risk.