Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30732136›Full record

Observational studyMedicine2019

Heart rate variability based machine learning models for risk prediction of suspected sepsis patients in the emergency department.

Calvin J Chiew, Nan Liu, Takashi Tagami, Ting Hway Wong, Zhi Xiong Koh, Marcus E H Ong

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Medicine, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
45citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

45 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Trial
  6. Trial
  7. Review
  8. Article
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  11. Observational
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Artificial Intelligence in Emergency Medicine: A Primer for the Nonexpert.Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians open · 2025
    Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Heart rate variability in acute pancreatitis: a narrative review.Translational gastroenterology and hepatology · 2024
    Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Calvin J ChiewHealth Services Research Unit, Division of Medicine, Singapore General Hospital.
Nan LiuHealth Services Research Centre, Singapore Health Services.
Takashi TagamiHealth Services and Systems Research, Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Ting Hway WongHealth Services Research Unit, Division of Medicine, Singapore General Hospital.
Zhi Xiong KohDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore.
Marcus E H OngHealth Services Research Centre, Singapore Health Services.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Early identification of high-risk septic patients in the emergency department (ED) may guide appropriate management and disposition, thereby improving outcomes. We compared the performance of machine learning models against conventional risk stratification tools, namely the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and our previously described Singapore ED Sepsis (SEDS) model, in the prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM) among suspected sepsis patients in the ED.Adult patients who presented to Singapore General Hospital (SGH) ED between September 2014 and April 2016, and who met ≥2 of the 4 Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria were included. Patient demographics, vital signs and heart rate variability (HRV) measures obtained at triage were used as predictors. Baseline models were created using qSOFA, NEWS, MEWS, and SEDS scores. Candidate models were trained using k-nearest neighbors, random forest, adaptive boosting, gradient boosting and support vector machine. Models were evaluated on F1 score and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC).A total of 214 patients were included, of whom 40 (18.7%) met the outcome. Gradient boosting was the best model with a F1 score of 0.50 and AUPRC of 0.35, and performed better than all the baseline comparators (SEDS, F1 0.40, AUPRC 0.22; qSOFA, F1 0.32, AUPRC 0.21; NEWS, F1 0.38, AUPRC 0.28; MEWS, F1 0.30, AUPRC 0.25).A machine learning model can be used to improve prediction of 30-day IHM among suspected sepsis patients in the ED compared to traditional risk stratification tools.

Indexed as

Heart RateMachine LearningSeverity of Illness IndexAgedAged, 80 and overEmergency Service, HospitalFemaleHospital MortalityHumansMaleMiddle AgedOrgan Dysfunction ScoresReproducibility of ResultsROC CurveSepsisSingapore

Identifiers

PMID30732136
PMCPMC6380871

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.