Probabilistic risk assessment for high-end consumers of seafood on the northeastern Gulf coast.

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill (April 20, 2010) caused concern regarding Gulf seafood safety. Communities were skeptical of governmental risk assessments because they did not take into account the higher consumption of seafood along coastal areas. The objective of this study was to perform a probabilistic risk assessment based on the consumption rates of high-end consumers of Gulf seafood. We utilized seafood consumption data from five communities across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This study collected finfish, shrimp, blue crab, and oysters from these communities and analyzed their tissues for polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A probabilistic risk assessment was performed using population-specific seafood consumption rates and body weights for commercial fishers, recreational fishers, and a Filipino-American community. For non-cancer effects, 95th percentile hazard quotients for these targeted populations ranged between 1.84E-04 to 5.39E-03 for individual seafood types. The 95th percentile hazard indices for total seafood consumption ranged from 3.45E-03 to 8.41E-03. Based on total seafood consumption, highest hazard indices were modeled for the Filipino-American community followed by commercial and recreational fishers. Despite higher consumption rates, hazard indices for the high-end consumers targeted in this study were two to three orders of magnitude below the regulatory limit of 1.