ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2019
Stalls in Africa's fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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22 citing papers in PubMed.
- High-risk fertility behavior among reproductive age women in extremely high and very high maternal mortality sub-Saharan African countries.Reproduction & fertility · 2026Article
- Fertility in Ethiopia: factors associated with the number of live births -a survey-adjusted poisson regression analysis of the 2019 ethiopian mini demographic and health survey.Frontiers in reproductive health · 2026Article
- Projections of climate change vulnerability along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2020-2100.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Demand for family planning satisfied by modern methods in Ghana: trends and inequalities (2013-2022).BMC public health · 2025Article
- The role of climate change anxiety in shaping childrearing intentions among people living in British Columbia.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Forecasting Africa's fertility decline by female education groups.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Exploring the determinants of fertility rates in Ethiopia: a decomposition analysis using count regression models with a focus on urban and rural residence, based on the 2019 Ethiopian demographic health survey.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2024Article
- A bivariate Poisson regression to analyse impact of outlier women on correlation between female schooling and fertility in Malawi.BMC women's health · 2024Article
- Trends and factors associated with declining lifetime fertility among married women in Kenya between 2003 and 2014: an analysis of Kenya demographic health surveys.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Prevalence and factors associated with condom use among sexually active young women in Haiti: evidence from the 2016/17 Haiti demographic and health survey.BMC women's health · 2023Article
- Article
- Effectiveness of interventions to reduce child marriage and teen pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review of quantitative evidence.Frontiers in reproductive health · 2023Article
- Fertility trends by HIV status in a health and demographic surveillance study in Magu District, Tanzania, 1994-2018.PloS one · 2023Article
- Is there still evolution in the human population?Biologia futura · 2022Review
- Article
- Life After Loss: A Prospective Analysis of Mortality Exposure and Unintended Fertility.Demography · 2022Article
- Socioeconomic development predicts a weaker contraceptive effect of breastfeeding.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Urban Family Planning in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Critical Scoping Review.Frontiers in global women's health · 2021Article
- Maternal cumulative prevalence measures of child mortality show heavy burden in sub-Saharan Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs.BMC public health · 2020Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
Population projections for sub-Saharan Africa have, over the past decade, been corrected upwards because in a number of countries, the earlier declining trends in fertility stalled around 2000. While most studies so far have focused on economic, political, or other factors around 2000, here we suggest that in addition to those period effects, the phenomenon also matched up with disruptions in the cohort trends of educational attainment of women after the postindependence economic and political turmoil. Disruptions likely resulted in a higher proportion of poorly educated women of childbearing age in the late 1990s and early 2000s than there would have been otherwise. In addition to the direct effects of education on lowering fertility, these less-educated female cohorts were also more vulnerable to adverse period effects around 2000. To explore this hypothesis, we combine individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys for 18 African countries with and without fertility stalls, thus creating a pooled dataset of more than two million births to some 670,000 women born from 1950 to 1995 by level of education. Statistical analyses indicate clear discontinuities in the improvement of educational attainment of subsequent cohorts of women and stronger sensitivity of less-educated women to period effects. We assess the magnitude of the effect of educational discontinuity through a comparison of the actual trends with counterfactual trends based on the assumption of no education stalls, resulting in up to half a child per woman less in 2010 and 13 million fewer live births over the 1995-2010 period.
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