ArticleAnnals of intensive care2019
The prognostic accuracy evaluation of SAPS 3, SOFA and APACHE II scores for mortality prediction in the surgical ICU: an external validation study and decision-making analysis.
Article in Annals of intensive care, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers.
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44 citing papers in PubMed.
- Machine learning-based prediction of 30-day mortality in critically ill patients with rheumatoid arthritis.Clinical rheumatology · 2026Article
- Perioperative Outcomes and Complications of Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy in End-Stage Renal Disease Patients: A Prospective Comparative Study.World journal of surgery · 2026Observational
- Blood biomarker trajectories in ICU-directed prediction models - A scoping review.The EPMA journal · 2026Review
- Albumin, mNUTRIC and NRS-2002: Predicting Mortality in Elderly ICU Fracture Patients.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- The Brazilian risk assessment severity index score: a novel tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in emergency departments.World journal of emergency medicine · 2026Article
- Association between deep learning-based atrial fibrillation burden and in-hospital mortality.PLOS digital health · 2026Article
- Development and external validation of an artificial intelligence model for predicting mortality and prolonged ICU stay in postoperative critically ill patients: a retrospective study.World journal of emergency surgery : WJES · 2025Article
- Development and validation of machine learning-based risk prediction models for ICU-acquired weakness: a prospective cohort study.European journal of medical research · 2025Article
- Cardiac autonomic function score: a novel risk stratification tool in the cardiac intensive care unit based on periodic repolarization dynamics and deceleration capacity of heart rate (LMU-eICU study).European heart journal. Digital health · 2025Article
- Development and Validation of a Dynamic Real-Time Risk Prediction Model for Intensive Care Units Patients Based on Longitudinal Irregular Data: Multicenter Retrospective Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- CRISP: A causal relationships-guided deep learning framework for advanced ICU mortality prediction.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- Prognostic value of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index in mortality prediction among critically ill acute myocardial infarction patients.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2025Article
- Triglyceride-glucose index and prognosis in non-diabetic critically ill patients: data from the eICU database.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Impact of in-hospital body mass index variation on 28-day mortality in critically ill surgical patients: a multi-center retrospective analysis.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- APACHE II, SOFA, and SAPS III after transhiatal and thoracoscopic in prone position esophagectomy for esophageal cancer: a single-center retrospective cohort analysis.Arquivos brasileiros de cirurgia digestiva : ABCD = Brazilian archives of digestive surgery · 2025Article
- Nonlinear association between triglyceride-glucose index and 28-day mortality in intensive care units: a multi-center retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Article
- Early Mortality Prediction in Intensive Care Unit Patients Based on Serum Metabolomic Fingerprint.International journal of molecular sciences · 2024Article
- Development and validation of a predictive model for in-hospital mortality from perioperative bacteremia in gastrointestinal surgery.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2024Article
- Enhancing Sepsis prognosis: Integrating social determinants and demographic variables into a comprehensive model for critically ill patients.Journal of critical care · 2024Article
- Validation of a checklist to facilitate serious illness conversations in adult emergency in China: a single-centre pilot study.BMC emergency medicine · 2024Article
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12 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe early postoperative period is critical for surgical patients. SOFA, SAPS 3 and APACHE II are prognostic scores widely used to predict mortality in ICU patients. This study aimed to evaluate these index tests for their prognostic accuracy for intra-ICU and in-hospital mortalities as target conditions in patients admitted to ICU after urgent or elective surgeries and to test whether they aid in decision-making. The process comprised the assessment of discrimination through analysis of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration of the prognostic models for the target conditions. After, the clinical relevance of applying them was evaluated through the measurement of the net benefit of their use in the clinical decision.
resultsIndex tests were found to discriminate regular for both target conditions with a poor calibration (C statistics-intra-ICU mortality AUROCs: APACHE II 0.808, SAPS 3 0.821 and SOFA 0.797/in-hospital mortality AUROCs: APACHE II 0.772, SAPS 3 0.790 and SOFA 0.742). Calibration assessment revealed a weak correlation between the observed and expected number of cases in several thresholds of risk, calculated by each model, for both tested outcomes. The net benefit analysis showed that all score's aggregate value in the clinical decision when the calculated probabilities of death ranged between 10 and 40%.
conclusionsIn this study, we observed that the tested ICU prognostic scores are fair tools for intra-ICU and in-hospital mortality prediction in a cohort of postoperative surgical patients. Also, they may have some potential to be used as ancillary data to support decision-making by physicians and families regarding the level of therapeutic investment and palliative care.
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