ArticleBMJ open2019
Impacts of Brexit on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study.
Article in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Impact of Brexit on UK Food Standards and Food Security: Perspectives on the Repositioning of Neoliberal Food Policy.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- School meals in the UK: ultra-processed, unequal and inadequate.Public health nutrition · 2023Article
- Facilitating Systems Thinking Through Arts-Based STEM Integration.Frontiers in education · 2022Article
- Is the healthy start scheme associated with increased food expenditure in low-income families with young children in the United Kingdom?BMC public health · 2021Article
- Conceptualising household food insecurity in Northern Ireland: risk factors, implications for society and the economy, and recommendations for business and policy response.SN business & economics · 2021Article
- UK's fruit and vegetable supply increasingly dependent on imports from climate vulnerable producing countries.Nature food · 2020Article
- Article
- Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study.BMJ nutrition, prevention & health · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo estimate the potential impacts of different Brexit trade policy scenarios on the price and intake of fruits and vegetables (F&V) and consequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths in England between 2021 and 2030.
designEconomic and epidemiological modelling study with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
settingThe model combined publicly available data on F&V trade, published estimates of UK-specific price elasticities, national survey data on F&V intake, estimates on the relationship between F&V intake and CVD from published meta-analyses and CVD mortality projections for 2021-2030.
participantsEnglish adults aged 25 years and older.
interventionsWe modelled four potential post-Brexit trade scenarios: (1) free trading agreement with the EU and maintaining half of non-EU free trade partners; (2) free trading agreement with the EU but no trade deal with any non-EU countries; (3) no-deal Brexit; and (4) liberalised trade regime that eliminates all import tariffs. OUTCOME MEASURES: Cumulative coronary heart disease and stroke deaths attributed to the different Brexit scenarios modelled between 2021 and 2030.
resultsUnder all Brexit scenarios modelled, prices of F&V would increase, especially for those highly dependent on imports. This would decrease intake of F&V between 2.5% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.9% to 3.1%) and 11.4% (9.5% to 14.2%) under the different scenarios. Our model suggests that a no-deal Brexit scenario would be the most harmful, generating approximately 12 400 (6690 to 23 390) extra CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, whereas establishing a free trading agreement with the EU would have a lower impact on mortality, contributing approximately 5740 (2860 to 11 910) extra CVD deaths.
conclusionsTrade policy under all modelled Brexit scenarios could increase price and decrease intake of F&V, generating substantial additional CVD mortality in England. The UK government should consider the population health implications of Brexit trade policy options, including changes to food systems.
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