Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30690622›Full record

ArticleSystematic biology2019

Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited.

Nicolas Chazot, Niklas Wahlberg, André Victor Lucci Freitas, Charles Mitter, Conrad Labandeira, Jae-Cheon Sohn, Ranjit Kumar Sahoo, Noemy Seraphim, Rienk de Jong, Maria Heikkilä

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In one paragraph

Article in Systematic biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 54 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
54citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

54 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Speciation through chromosomal fusion and fission in Lepidoptera.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2020
    Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Cellular innovations and diversity in the lepidopteran compound eye.Journal of comparative physiology. A, Neuroethology, sensory, neural, and behavioral physiology · 2026
    Review
  4. Evolutionary implications of a deep-time perspective on insect pollination.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025
    Review
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  15. Ecology and evolution · 2024
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Nicolas ChazotDepartment of Biology, Lunds Universitet, Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund, Sweden.
Niklas WahlbergDepartment of Biology, Lunds Universitet, Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund, Sweden.
André Victor Lucci FreitasDepartamento de Biologia Animal, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Cidade Universitária Zeferino Vaz, Caixa Postal 6109, Barão Geraldo 13083-970, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil.
Charles MitterDepartment of Entomology, University of Maryland, 4291 Fieldhouse Dr, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
Conrad LabandeiraDepartment of Entomology, University of Maryland, 4291 Fieldhouse Dr, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
Jae-Cheon SohnDepartment of Science Education, Gongju National University of Education, Gongju, 27, Ungjin-ro, Gongju-si, Chungnam 32553, Republic of Korea.
Ranjit Kumar SahooIISER-TVM Centre for Research and Education in Ecology and Evolution (ICREEE), School of Biology, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala 695 551, India.
Noemy SeraphimInstituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia de São Paulo, Campus Campinas, CTI Renato Archer - Av. Comendador Aladino Selmi, s/n - Amarais, Campinas, São Paulo 13069-901, Brazil.
Rienk de JongDepartment of Entomology, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, PO Box 9517, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands.
Maria HeikkiläFinnish Museum of Natural History LUOMUS, Zoology Unit, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 17, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.

Indexed as

PhylogenyAnimalsButterfliesFossilsTimeButterfliesEarly Cretaceousfossilshost plantsmarginal priorPapilionoideatime-calibration

Identifiers

PMID30690622
PMCPMC6893297

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.