Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30690464›Full record

ArticleMolecular biology and evolution2019

Beyond the SNP Threshold: Identifying Outbreak Clusters Using Inferred Transmissions.

James Stimson, Jennifer Gardy, Barun Mathema, Valeriu Crudu, Ted Cohen, Caroline Colijn

Open access · bronzeAbstract readEvaluation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Molecular biology and evolution, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 108 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
108citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
8.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

108 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 161 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  10. Review
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  14. Genomic epidemiology of theFrontiers in microbiology · 2026
    Article
  15. Genomic characterization ofFrontiers in veterinary science · 2026
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Exploring the Utility of MALDI-TOF Mass Spectrometry and Antimicrobial Resistance in Hospital Outbreak Detection.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2026
    Article
  20. High-risk lineages shape the resistome and virulome of multidrug-resistantFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026
    Article

48 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.

James StimsonDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Jennifer GardyBritish Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Communicable Disease Prevention and Control Services, Vancouver, Canada.
Barun MathemaDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, USA.
Valeriu CruduPhthisiopneumology Institute, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova.
Ted CohenYale University School of Public Health, New Haven.
Caroline ColijnDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
BC Centre for Disease Control · CAColumbia University · USImperial College London · GBPhthisiopneumology Institute "Chiril Draganiuc" · MDSimon Fraser University · CAYale University · US

Funding

Understanding and controlling antibiotic resistanceU54GM088558 · NIGMS · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI HANAGE, WILLIAM · 2009 to 2018
$26.4M
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is increasingly used to aid the understanding of pathogen transmission. A first step in analyzing WGS data is usually to define "transmission clusters," sets of cases that are potentially linked by direct transmission. This is often done by including two cases in the same cluster if they are separated by fewer single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) than a specified threshold. However, there is little agreement as to what an appropriate threshold should be. We propose a probabilistic alternative, suggesting that the key inferential target for transmission clusters is the number of transmissions separating cases. We characterize this by combining the number of SNP differences and the length of time over which those differences have accumulated, using information about case timing, molecular clock, and transmission processes. Our framework has the advantage of allowing for variable mutation rates across the genome and can incorporate other epidemiological data. We use two tuberculosis studies to illustrate the impact of our approach: with British Columbia data by using spatial divisions; with Republic of Moldova data by incorporating antibiotic resistance. Simulation results indicate that our transmission-based method is better in identifying direct transmissions than a SNP threshold, with dissimilarity between clusterings of on average 0.27 bits compared with 0.37 bits for the SNP-threshold method and 0.84 bits for randomly permuted data. These results show that it is likely to outperform the SNP-threshold method where clock rates are variable and sample collection times are spread out. We implement the method in the R package transcluster.

Indexed as

Disease Transmission, InfectiousExome SequencingDisease OutbreaksHumansMycobacterium tuberculosisPolymorphism, Single NucleotideTuberculosispublic healthSNPtransmission clusterswhole-genome sequencing

Identifiers

PMID30690464
PMCPMC6389316
OpenAlexW2951384372

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.