Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30689731›Full record

ArticleBioinformatics (Oxford, England)2019

Comparison of statistical algorithms for daily syndromic surveillance aberration detection.

Angela Noufaily, Roger A Morbey, Felipe J Colón-González, Alex J Elliot, Gillian E Smith, Iain R Lake, Noel McCarthy

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Bioinformatics (Oxford, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed.

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  8. Retrospective case-case study investigation of a significant increase inEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025
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  19. 3Journal of preventive medicine and hygiene · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Angela NoufailyStatistics and Epidemiology, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Roger A MorbeyReal-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, National Infection Service, Public Health England, Birmingham, UK.
Felipe J Colón-GonzálezSchool of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
Alex J ElliotReal-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, National Infection Service, Public Health England, Birmingham, UK.
Gillian E SmithReal-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, National Infection Service, Public Health England, Birmingham, UK.
Iain R LakeSchool of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
Noel McCarthyPopulation Evidence and Technologies, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.

Funding

Department of Health HPRU-2012-10038Department of Health HPRU-2012-10141
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

motivationPublic health authorities can provide more effective and timely interventions to protect populations during health events if they have effective multi-purpose surveillance systems. These systems rely on aberration detection algorithms to identify potential threats within large datasets. Ensuring the algorithms are sensitive, specific and timely is crucial for protecting public health. Here, we evaluate the performance of three detection algorithms extensively used for syndromic surveillance: the 'rising activity, multilevel mixed effects, indicator emphasis' (RAMMIE) method and the improved quasi-Poisson regression-based method known as 'Farrington Flexible' both currently used at Public Health England, and the 'Early Aberration Reporting System' (EARS) method used at the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. We model the wide range of data structures encountered within the daily syndromic surveillance systems used by PHE. We undertake extensive simulations to identify which algorithms work best across different types of syndromes and different outbreak sizes. We evaluate RAMMIE for the first time since its introduction. Performance metrics were computed and compared in the presence of a range of simulated outbreak types that were added to baseline data.

resultsWe conclude that amongst the algorithm variants that have a high specificity (i.e. >90%), Farrington Flexible has the highest sensitivity and specificity, whereas RAMMIE has the highest probability of outbreak detection and is the most timely, typically detecting outbreaks 2-3 days earlier. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: R codes developed for this project are available through https://github.com/FelipeJColon/AlgorithmComparison. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Indexed as

Sentinel SurveillanceAlgorithmsDisease OutbreaksEnglandHumans

Identifiers

PMID30689731
PMCPMC6736430

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.