Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30665469›Full record

ArticleParasites & vectors2019

A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China.

Xia Wang, Sanyi Tang, Jianhong Wu, Yanni Xiao, Robert A Cheke

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Parasites & vectors, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Forecast of Dengue Cases in 20 Chinese Cities Based on the Deep Learning Method.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Development and Use of a Reproducible Framework for Spatiotemporal Climatic Risk Assessment and its Association with Decadal Trend of Dengue in India.Indian journal of community medicine : official publication of Indian Association of Preventive & Social Medicine
    Article
  12. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Xia WangSchool of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China.
Sanyi TangSchool of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China.
Jianhong WuCentre for Disease Modelling, York Institute for Health Research, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
Yanni XiaoSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China.
Robert A ChekeNatural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich at Medway, Central Avenue, Chatham Maritime, Kent, ME4 4TB, UK. R.A.Cheke@greenwich.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7437-1934

Funding

Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (China) GK201803006National Natural Science Foundation (China) 11471201National Natural Science Foundation of China 11601301National Natural Science Foundation of China 11631012Young Talent fund of the University Association for Science and Technology in Shaanxi, China 20160212
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundChina's Guangdong Province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014. Here we investigate if the weather conditions contributing to the outbreak can be elucidated by multi-scale models.

methodsA multi-scale modelling framework, parameterized by available weather, vector and human case data, was used to examine the integrative effect of temperature and precipitation variation on the effective reproduction number (ERN) of dengue fever.

resultsWith temperature in the range of 25-30 °C, increasing precipitation leads to an increase in the ERN with an average lag of 10 days. With monthly precipitation fixed, the more regular the pattern of rainfall (i.e. higher numbers of rainy days), the larger is the total number of adult mosquitoes. A rainfall distribution peaking in June and July produces a large ERN, beneficial to transmission. Climate conditions conducive to major outbreaks within a season are a combination of relatively high temperature, high precipitation peaking in June and July, and uninterrupted drizzle or regular rainfall.

conclusionsEvaluating a set of weather conditions favourable to a future major dengue outbreak requires near-future prediction of temperature variation, total rainfall and its peaking times. Such information permits seasonal rapid response management decisions due to the lags between the precipitation events and the realisation of the ERN.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksModels, StatisticalAedesAnimalsDengueHumansMosquito VectorsRainReproductionSeasonsTemperatureWeatherAedesDengueEffective reproduction numberMulti-scale modelPrecipitationShort-term forecastTemperature

Identifiers

PMID30665469
PMCPMC6341621

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.