ArticleConservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology2019
Applying habitat and population-density models to land-cover time series to inform IUCN Red List assessments.
Article in Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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24 citing papers in PubMed.
- How the Choice of Spatial Resolution Affects Freshwater Fish Species Distribution Models.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Balancing land use for conservation, agriculture, and renewable energy.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?Ecology letters · 2025Review
- Cryptic species conservation: a review.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025Review
- Enhanced risk assessment framework integrating distribution dynamics, genetically inferred populations, and morphological traits ofZoological research · 2025Article
- Using comparative extinction risk analysis to prioritize the IUCN Red List reassessments of amphibians.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2024Article
- A model for the noninvasive, habitat-inclusive estimation of upper limit abundance for synanthropes, exemplified byScience advances · 2024Article
- Mapping the planet's critical areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Evidence-based guidelines for automated conservation assessments of plant species.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2023Article
- Integrating habitat-masked range maps with quantifications of prevalence to estimate area of occupancy in IUCN assessments.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2023Article
- Time-lagged effects of habitat fragmentation on terrestrial mammals in Madagascar.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2022Article
- Evaluating expert-based habitat suitability information of terrestrial mammals with GPS-tracking data.Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology · 2022Article
- Translating habitat class to land cover to map area of habitat of terrestrial vertebrates.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2022Article
- Opportunities for the conservation of migratory birds to benefit threatened resident vertebrates in the Neotropics.The Journal of applied ecology · 2022Article
- Prioritizing Beneficial Management Practices for Species at Risk in Agricultural Lands.Environmental management · 2021Article
- Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk.Global change biology · 2021Article
- Knowledge Gaps in the Definition of Threats for the Red List Assessment of European Freshwater-Dependent Fish Species.Biology · 2021Article
- Global abundance estimates for 9,700 bird species.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Combined effects of land use and hunting on distributions of tropical mammals.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2020Article
- A global map of terrestrial habitat types.Scientific data · 2020Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List categories and criteria are the most widely used framework for assessing the relative extinction risk of species. The criteria are based on quantitative thresholds relating to the size, trends, and structure of species' distributions and populations. However, data on these parameters are sparse and uncertain for many species and unavailable for others, potentially leading to their misclassification or classification as data deficient. We devised an approach that combines data on land-cover change, species-specific habitat preferences, population abundance, and dispersal distance to estimate key parameters (extent of occurrence, maximum area of occupancy, population size and trend, and degree of fragmentation) and hence predict IUCN Red List categories for species. We applied our approach to nonpelagic birds and terrestrial mammals globally (∼15,000 species). The predicted categories were fairly consistent with published IUCN Red List assessments, but more optimistic overall. We predicted 4.2% of species (467 birds and 143 mammals) to be more threatened than currently assessed and 20.2% of data deficient species (10 birds and 114 mammals) to be at risk of extinction. Incorporating the habitat fragmentation subcriterion reduced these predictions 1.5-2.3% and 6.4-14.9% (depending on the quantitative definition of fragmentation) for threatened and data deficient species, respectively, highlighting the need for improved guidance for IUCN Red List assessors on the application of this aspect of the IUCN Red List criteria. Our approach complements traditional methods of estimating parameters for IUCN Red List assessments. Furthermore, it readily provides an early-warning system to identify species potentially warranting changes in their extinction-risk category based on periodic updates of land-cover information. Given our method relies on optimistic assumptions about species distribution and abundance, all species predicted to be more at risk than currently evaluated should be prioritized for reassessment.
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