ArticleParasites & vectors2019
Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of published literature on mosquito control action thresholds across the world.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Data-driven methods for dengue prediction and surveillance using real-world and Big Data: A systematic review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Use of Digital Tools in Arbovirus Surveillance: Scoping Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Article
- A new lineage nomenclature to aid genomic surveillance of dengue virus.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Insight into the seroepidemiology and dynamics of circulating serotypes of dengue virus over a 4 year period in western Uttar Pradesh, India.Access microbiology · 2023Article
- The Role of Heterogenous Real-world Data for Dengue Surveillance in Martinique: Observational Retrospective Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Observational
- How heterogeneous is the dengue transmission profile in Brazil? A study in six Brazilian states.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Imported Dengue Case Numbers and Local Climatic Patterns Are Associated with Dengue Virus Transmission in Florida, USA.Insects · 2022Article
- The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- A Novel Multiplex RT-PCR Assay for Simultaneous Detection of Dengue and Chikungunya Viruses.International journal of molecular sciences · 2020Article
- Imported dengue in Spain: a nationwide analysis with predictive time series analyses.Journal of travel medicine · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDengue viruses have spread rapidly across tropical regions of the world in recent decades. Today, dengue transmission is observed in the Americas, Southeast Asia, Western Pacific, Africa and in non-endemic areas of the USA and Europe. Dengue is responsible for 16% of travel-related febrile illnesses. Although most prevalent in tropical areas, risk maps indicate that subtropical regions are suitable for transmission. Dengue-control programs in these regions should focus on minimizing virus importation, community engagement, improved vector surveillance and control.
resultsWe developed a conceptual model for the probability of local introduction and propagation of dengue, comprising disease vulnerability and receptivity, in a temperate area, considering risk factors and social media indicators. Using a rich data set from a temperate area in the south of Brazil (where there is active surveillance of mosquitoes, viruses and human cases), we used a conceptual model as a framework to build two probabilistic models to estimate the probability of initiation and propagation of local dengue transmission. The final models estimated with good accuracy the probabilities of local transmission and propagation, with three and four weeks in advance, respectively. Vulnerability indicators (number of imported cases and dengue virus circulation in mosquitoes) and a receptivity indicator (vector abundance) could be optimally integrated with tweets and temperature data to estimate probability of early local dengue transmission.
conclusionsWe demonstrated how vulnerability and receptivity indicators can be integrated into probabilistic models to estimate initiation and propagation of dengue transmission. The models successfully estimate disease risk in different scenarios and periods of the year. We propose a decision model with three different risk levels to assist in the planning of prevention and control measures in temperate regions at risk of dengue introduction.
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