Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30649065›Full record

ArticleAIDS (London, England)2019

The influence of constraints on the efficient allocation of resources for HIV prevention.

Isaac J Stopard, Jessica B McGillen, Katharina Hauck, Timothy B Hallett

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in AIDS (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Isaac J StopardDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Jessica B McGillen
Katharina Hauck
Timothy B Hallett

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo investigate how 'real-world' constraints on the allocative and technical efficiency of HIV prevention programmes affect resource allocation and the number of infections averted.

designEpidemiological modelling and economic analyses in Benin, South Africa and Tanzania.

methodsWe simulated different HIV prevention programmes, and first determined the most efficient allocation of resources, in which the HIV prevention budget is shared among specific interventions, risk-groups and provinces to maximize the number of infections averted. We then identified the efficient allocation of resources and achievable impact given the following constraints to allocative efficiency: earmarking [provinces with budgets fund pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for low-risk women first], meeting targets [provinces with budgets fund universal test-and-treat (UTT) first] and minimizing changes in the geographical distribution of funds. We modelled technical inefficiencies as a reduction in the coverage of PrEP or UTT, which were factored into the resource allocation process or took effect following the allocation. Each scenario was investigated over a range of budgets, such that the impact reaches its maximum.

resultsThe 'earmarking', 'meeting targets' and 'minimizing change' constraints reduce the potential impact of HIV prevention programmes, but at the higher budgets these constraints have little to no effect (approximately 35 billion US$ in Tanzania). Over-estimating technical efficiency can result in a loss of impact compared to what would be possible if technical efficiencies were known accurately.

conclusionFailing to account for constraints on allocative and technical efficiency can result in the overestimation of the health gains possible, and for technical inefficiencies the allocation of an inefficient strategy.

Indexed as

Resource AllocationCost-Benefit AnalysisFemaleHealth ResourcesHIV InfectionsHumansMaleModels, TheoreticalPre-Exposure ProphylaxisRisk FactorsSouth AfricaTanzania

Identifiers

PMID30649065
PMCPMC6511422

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.