ArticleBMJ open2019
Global certification of wild poliovirus eradication: insights from modelling hard-to-reach subpopulations and confidence about the absence of transmission.
Article in BMJ open, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 20 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame.PLOS global public health · 2025Review
- Non-lytic spread of poliovirus requires the nonstructural protein 3CD.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Review
- Molecular epidemiology of enteroviruses from Guatemalan wastewater isolated from human lung fibroblasts.PloS one · 2024Article
- Modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Modeling scenarios for ending poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Historical reconstruction of inaccessibility status in Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Borno and Yobe States, Nigeria, 2010-2020.The Pan African medical journal · 2023Article
- Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Expected Implications of Globally Coordinated Cessation of Serotype 3 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (OPV) Before Serotype 1 OPV.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Borno and Yobe, Northeast Nigeria.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Review
- Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Updated Characterization of Post-OPV Cessation Risks: Lessons from 2019 Serotype 2 Outbreaks and Implications for the Probability of OPV Restart.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Review
- Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Borno and Yobe in Northeast Nigeria.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2021Article
- Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication.Expert review of vaccines · 2020Review
- Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States.Expert review of vaccinesArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo explore the extent to which undervaccinated subpopulations may influence the confidence about no circulation of wild poliovirus (WPV) after the last detected case. DESIGN AND
participantsWe used a hypothetical model to examine the extent to which the existence of an undervaccinated subpopulation influences the confidence about no WPV circulation after the last detected case as a function of different characteristics of the subpopulation (eg, size, extent of isolation). We also used the hypothetical population model to inform the bounds on the maximum possible time required to reach high confidence about no circulation in a completely isolated and unvaccinated subpopulation starting either at the endemic equilibrium or with a single infection in an entirely susceptible population.
resultsIt may take over 3 years to reach 95% confidence about no circulation for this hypothetical population despite high surveillance sensitivity and high vaccination coverage in the surrounding general population if: (1) ability to detect cases in the undervaccinated subpopulation remains exceedingly small, (2) the undervaccinated subpopulation remains small and highly isolated from the general population and (3) the coverage in the undervaccinated subpopulation remains very close to the minimum needed to eradicate. Fully-isolated hypothetical populations of 4000 people or less cannot sustain endemic transmission for more than 5 years, with at least 20 000 people required for a 50% chance of at least 5 years of sustained transmission in a population without seasonality that starts at the endemic equilibrium. Notably, however, the population size required for persistent transmission increases significantly for realistic populations that include some vaccination and seasonality and/or that do not begin at the endemic equilibrium.
conclusionsSignificant trade-offs remain inherent in global polio certification decisions, which underscore the need for making and valuing investments to maximise population immunity and surveillance quality in all remaining possible WPV reservoirs.
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