Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30637484›Full record

ArticleSurgery today2019

Validated nomogram for the prediction of disease-free survival after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria: individualizing a surveillance strategy.

Ka Wing Ma, Wong Hoi She, Tan To Cheung, Albert Chi Yan Chan, Wing Chiu Dai, James Yan Yue Fung, Chung Mau Lo, Kenneth Siu Ho Chok

Abstract read
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Article in Surgery today, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
1.1field-weighted citation impact, top 24% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Ka Wing MaDivisions of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 102 Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
Wong Hoi SheDivisions of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 102 Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
Tan To CheungDivisions of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 102 Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
Albert Chi Yan ChanDivisions of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 102 Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
Wing Chiu DaiDivisions of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 102 Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
James Yan Yue FungDepartment of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, 102 Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
Chung Mau LoDivisions of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 102 Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
Kenneth Siu Ho ChokDivisions of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 102 Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China. kennethchok@yahoo.com.hk.
Queen Mary Hospital · CNUniversity of Hong Kong · HK

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveWe sought to develop a nomogram for the prediction of tumor recurrence after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within the Milan criteria.

methodConsecutive HCC patients admitted for hepatectomy between 1994 and 2014 were enrolled in this study. Patients were excluded if they had recurrent HCC or tumors beyond the Milan criteria. Patients were randomized and assigned to the derivation and validation sets in a 1:1 ratio. Independent factors for disease-free survival were identified using the Cox regression model. A nomogram was derived and validated with the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves.

resultsThere were 617 eligible patients included in the analysis. The median age was 59 years, 481 were male, and 87.8% of the patients were hepatitis B virus carriers. The median follow-up was 68.7 months. The 5-year overall survival rate was 73.3% and HCC recurrence was detected in 55% of the patients. In the derivation set, a nomogram was constructed based on the seven independent factors for disease-free survival: age, alpha-fetoprotein, preoperative prothrombin time, magnitude of hepatectomy, postoperative complication, number of tumor nodules, and presence of microvascular invasion. A satisfactory discrimination ability was observed in both the derivation and validation sets (c-stat 0.672 and 0.665, respectively). The calibration plot yielded agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes, using the derived nomogram.

conclusionA validated nomogram quantifies the risk of recurrence after hepatectomy for HCC within the Milan criteria, and assists with the planning of individual postoperative surveillance protocols.

Indexed as

NomogramsAdultAgedCarcinoma, HepatocellularDisease-Free SurvivalFemaleForecastingHepatectomyHumansLiver NeoplasmsMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalPatient SelectionRetrospective StudiesRiskHepatocellullar carconomaNomogramPredictionRecurrence

Identifiers

PMID30637484
OpenAlexW2908784352

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.