ArticleParasites & vectors2019
Distribution of Anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
42 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control.Parasites & vectors · 2023Pooled it
- The rare and the common: habitat suitability and niche segregation of Anopheles algeriensis (Theobald, 1903) and Anopheles claviger s.s. (Meigen, 1804) in North-German peatlands is shaped by distinct landscape-weather interactions.Parasites & vectors · 2026Article
- Insight into eco-epidemiological traits of European native vector mosquitoes for disease transmission.Parasites & vectors · 2026Review
- Contemporary Anopheles vector species distribution in Scotland and its association with historical hotspots of malaria transmission.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Future climate scenarios reshape the suitability of major malaria vector taxa in South America.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Climate Change and Socioeconomic Vulnerability: The Carpathian Basin as a Potential Hotspot in the Dissemination of Dirofilaria repens in Europe.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Changes in the recent habitat suitability of Euro-Mediterranean Anopheles species due to land-use and climate.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Historical evolution of the epidemiology of Malaria in Spain and Europe. Future perspectives.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2025Review
- Climate Change Favors African Malaria Vector Mosquitoes.Global change biology · 2025Article
- New record of Anopheles superpictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in central Italy (Tuscany): resting adults and evidence of natural breeding sites.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Mothers and mosquitoes: climate change contributes to the spread of vector-borne pathogens posing a substantial threat to pregnant women.Seminars in immunopathology · 2025Review
- Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution ofEmerging microbes & infections · 2024Article
- Locally acquired malaria: a retrospective analysis of long-term surveillance data, European France, 1995 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Two Nested Inversions in the X Chromosome Differentiate the Dominant Malaria Vectors in Europe,Insects · 2024Article
- High temperatures and low humidity promote the occurrence of microsporidians (Microsporidia) in mosquitoes (Culicidae).Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Pathogen prospecting of museums: Reconstructing malaria epidemiology.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- The One Health Concept.British journal of biomedical science · 2024Review
- Seasonal prediction of the distribution of three major malaria vectors in China: Based on an ecological niche model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- A Systematic Review on the Viruses ofTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Review
- Toxins from Animal Venoms as a Potential Source of Antimalarials: A Comprehensive Review.Toxins · 2023Review
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Abstract
backgroundIn the scope of climate change the possible recurrence and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases poses a major concern. The occurrence of vector competent Anopheles species as well as favorable climatic conditions may lead to the re-emergence of autochthonous malaria in Europe and the Mediterranean area. However, high-resolution assessments of possible changes of Anopheles vector distributions and of potential malaria transmission stability in the European-Mediterranean area under changing climatic conditions during the course of the 21st century are not available yet.
methodsBoosted Regression Trees are applied to relate climate variables and land cover classes to vector occurrences. Changes in future vector distributions and potential malaria transmission stability due to climate change are assessed using state-of-the art regional climate model simulations.
resultsDistinct changes in the distributions of the dominant vectors of human malaria are to be expected under climate change. In general, temperature and precipitation changes will lead to a northward spread of the occurrences of Anopheles vectors. Yet, for some Mediterranean areas, occurrence probabilities may decline.
conclusionsPotential malaria transmission stability is increased in areas where the climatic changes favor vector occurrences as well as significantly impact the vectorial capacity. As a result, vector stability shows the highest increases between historical and future periods for the southern and south-eastern European areas. Anopheles atroparvus, the dominant vector in large parts of Europe, might play an important role with respect to changes of the potential transmission stability.
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