Evidence map›Paper›PMID 30616621›Full record

SynthesisBMC medical informatics and decision making2019

Meta-analysis of predictive models to assess the clinical validity and utility for patient-centered medical decision making: application to the CAncer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA).

Marine Lorent, Haïfa Maalmi, Philippe Tessier, Stéphane Supiot, Etienne Dantan, Yohann Foucher

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Marine LorentSPHERE (methodS in Patient-centered outcomes & HEalth ResEarch) U1246, INSERM, Nantes University, Tours University, Nantes, France.
Haïfa MaalmiDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
Philippe TessierSPHERE (methodS in Patient-centered outcomes & HEalth ResEarch) U1246, INSERM, Nantes University, Tours University, Nantes, France.
Stéphane SupiotDepartment of Radiotherapy, Institut de Cancérologie de l'Ouest René Gauducheau, Saint Herblain, France.
Etienne DantanSPHERE (methodS in Patient-centered outcomes & HEalth ResEarch) U1246, INSERM, Nantes University, Tours University, Nantes, France.
Yohann FoucherSPHERE (methodS in Patient-centered outcomes & HEalth ResEarch) U1246, INSERM, Nantes University, Tours University, Nantes, France. Yohann.Foucher@univ-nantes.fr.ORCID 0000-0003-0330-7457

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score was designed and validated several times to predict the biochemical recurrence-free survival after a radical prostatectomy. Our objectives were, first, to study the clinical validity of the CAPRA score, and, second, to assess its clinical utility for stratified medicine from an original patient-centered approach.

methodsWe proposed a meta-analysis based on a literature search using MEDLINE. Observed and predicted biochemical-recurrence-free survivals were compared to assess the calibration of the CAPRA score. Discriminative capacities were evaluated by estimating the summary time-dependent ROC curve. The clinical utility of the CAPRA score was evaluated according to the following stratified decisions: active monitoring for low-risk patients, prostatectomy for intermediate-risk patients, or radio-hormonal therapy for high risk patients. For this purpose, we assessed CAPRA's clinical utility in terms of its ability to maximize time-dependent utility functions (i.e. Quality-Adjusted Life-Years - QALYs).

resultsWe identified 683 manuscripts and finally retained 9 studies. We reported good discriminative capacities with an area under the SROCt curve at 0.73 [95%CI from 0.67 to 0.79], while graphical calibration seemed acceptable. Nevertheless, we also described that the CAPRA score was unable to discriminate between the three medical alternatives, i.e. it did not allow an increase in the number of life years in perfect health (QALYs) of patients with prostate cancer.

conclusionsWe confirmed the prognostic capacities of the CAPRA score. In contrast, we were not able to demonstrate its clinical usefulness for stratified medicine from a patient-centered perspective. Our results also highlighted the confusion between clinical validity and utility. This distinction should be better considered in order to develop predictive tools useful in practice.

Indexed as

Clinical Decision-MakingModels, TheoreticalHumansMaleProstatic NeoplasmsReproducibility of ResultsRisk AssessmentMeta-analysisPatient-centered outcomesProstate cancerStratified medicine

Identifiers

PMID30616621
PMCPMC6323757

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.